Global cocoa market set for 267,000 ton surplus in 2026/27, broker StoneX says

LONDON, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The global cocoa market is expected to reach a surplus of 267,000 metric tons in 2026/27 owing to increased cultivation and acreage driven by the price surge since 2023, StoneX said on Thursday in its first estimate for the coming season.

Adverse weather and disease in top growers Ivory Coast and Ghana helped cocoa prices CCc2 to nearly triple in 2024 and remain at historically elevated levels last year, prompting growers the world over to invest in the crop.

Benign weather has returned to West Africa for the 2025/26 (October-September) season while industrial consumption has slowed sharply in response to elevated prices, leading commodities broker StoneX to forecast a 287,000 ton surplus for this season.

The figure is unchanged from its previous estimate.

StoneX expects global cocoa stocks to return to historical averages over the next two seasons given the shift in supply and demand fundamentals.

"Despite the slow recovery in Africa, the robust response from secondary players - most notably Ecuador - combined with a decline in demand has more than offset the production shortfall among the main players," the broker said.

It forecasts a rise in global cocoa's stocks-to-use ratio to nearly 40% by the end of the 2026/27 season after significant depletions in inventories at the end of 2023/24.