US natgas futures slide 6% ahead of expiration with easing cold snap

ReutersJan 28, 2026 3:34 PM

Northeast spot power prices hit record $314/MWh amid cold
Gas output rises as frozen wells thaw, LSEG reports
Lower 48 gas demand to fall from 169.2 bcfd to 155.0 bcfd next week

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 6% on Wednesday ahead of contract expiration on forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

In addition, traders noted prices were down as output slowly climbed as frozen oil and gas wells thawed.

On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 43.4 cents, or 6.2%, to $6.520 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest since December 2022, after soaring by a record 124% over the past six days.

Futures for March NGH26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 2% to $3.76 per mmBtu.

As the brutal freeze slowly eases its icy grip on the rest of the country, it remains extremely cold in the U.S. Northeast where next-day power prices soared by 100% to a record $314 per megawatt-hour for Wednesday in New England. That was just one of many price records seen in the spot power and gas markets this week.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states dropped to 106.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output was on track to rise for a third day in a row to 97.5 bcfd on Wednesday after collapsing to a two-year low of 92.5 bcfd on Sunday due mostly to freezing wells in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma, according to LSEG data. That compares with a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

That means output fell about 17.5 bcfd from January 13-25. In past winters, freezing wells, known as freeze-offs in the energy industry, have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 17.2 bcfd from January 8-16 in 2024, cuts of 15.8 bcfd from December 20-24 in 2022 and a drop of 20.4 bcfd from February 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 12 -- though not nearly as cold as the weekend of January 24-25.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 169.2 bcfd this week to 155.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

On a daily basis, LSEG said total demand reached 174.9 bcfd on January 26, which was lower than its 176.2 bcfd forecast on Tuesday. That compares with the Lower 48 daily all-time high of 181.2 bcfd on January 21, 2025.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants fell to 17.7 bcfd so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, however, LNG feedgas was on track to rise for a second day in a row to 16.4 bcfd on Wednesday after dropping to a one-year low of 11.5 bcfd on Monday due to reductions at several plants during the weekend winter storm, including at Freeport LNG in Texas and Elba Island in Georgia.

	Week ended Jan 23 Forecast	Week ended Jan 16 Actual	Year ago Jan 23	Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 23
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-202	-120	-307	-208
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,863	3,065	2,617	2,680
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.8%	+6.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NGc1	6.44	6.95	3.72	3.62	3.79
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	13.03	13.98	14.67	11.94	18.51
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.35	11.23	14.16	12.24	18.12


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	521	540	375	427	438
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	2	2	11	4	3
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	523	542	386	431	441

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.4	96.6	96.5	105.3	98.6
U.S. Imports from Canada	10.3	11.5	8.7	N/A	9.6
U.S. LNG Imports	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	117.8	108.3	105.2	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.9	2.4	2.4	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.0	5.6	5.8	N/A	5.8
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	14.9	16.9	14.8	12.8
U.S. Commercial	19.9	24.8	21.4	16.7	17.3
U.S. Residential	33.7	43.7	36.6	28.4	29.9
U.S. Power Plant	35.2	40.8	36.5	34.4	32.5
U.S. Industrial	26.7	28.3	27.1	25.3	26.0
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	4.8	4.8	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.3	3.9	3.5	3.3	4.4
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	124.2	146.4	129.9	113.5	115.5
Total U.S. Demand	151.9	169.2	155.0	N/A	137.0

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	92	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	96	97	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jan 30	Week ended Jan 23	2025	2024	2023
Wind	9	12	11	11	10
Solar	3	4	6	5	4
Hydro	6	7	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	1	2
Petroleum	2	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	37	40	42	41
Coal	22	20	18	16	17
Nuclear	17	19	18	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	17.19	25.01	4.13	3.52	3.72
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	37.76	131.51	8.77	3.53	3.56
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	2.80	3.39	3.87	3.42	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	10.77	58.73	3.74	2.79	2.96
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	15.20	65.81	3.93	3.23	3.60
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	65.00	172.50	15.67	6.08	5.04
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	7.00	7.44	4.49	3.60	5.71
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	9.06	9.95	3.27	1.15	2.88
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.63	1.70	1.22	1.13	2.13

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2025	Five-Year Average (2021-2025)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	626.71	312.50	147.88	77.61	61.79
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	569.86	1014.40	75.11	60.23	54.47
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	38.31	51.01	52.79	44.81	68.96
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	50.49	67.73	44.47	34.82	59.94
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	53.26	58.82	39.98	28.44	53.02

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