US natgas futures soar to four-year high as frigid weather boosts heating demand, freezes wells

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose to a four-year high on Thursday after soaring by a record 71% over the past three days on forecasts that extreme cold weather over the next two weeks will boost heating demand to near-record levels while at the same time cutting output by freezing oil and gas wells.

Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) jumped 45.8 cents, or 9.4%, to $5.333 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since December 2022.

Traders said the market was mostly ignoring the expected release of a federal report later on Thursday that is expected to show a smaller-than-usual storage withdrawal last week when mild weather kept heating demand low.

Analysts forecast energy firms pulled 106 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas out of storage during the week ended January 16. That compares with a decline of 228 bcf during the same week last year and an average withdrawal of 191 bcf over the past five years (2021-2025). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Even though that small withdrawal will likely leave stockpiles about 7% above normal levels for this time of year, analysts said utilities will likely wipe out that excess inventory by pulling massive amounts of gas from storage to provide the fuel needed to keep homes and businesses warm over the next two weeks of extreme cold.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND:

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 108.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-month low of 106.1 bcfd on Thursday due mostly to reductions in North Dakota and Oklahoma, according to LSEG data, down from a recent high of 110.0 bcfd on January 12 and an all-time daily high of 111.2 bcfd on December 21.

Analysts noted some of the output decline seen so far this week - down about 3.9 bcfd since January 12 - was due to freezing oil and gas wells, known in the energy industry as freeze-offs.

In past winters, freeze-offs have slashed gas output by massive amounts, including the loss of around 17.2 bcfd from January 8-16 in 2024, cuts of 15.8 bcfd from December 20-24 in 2022, and the drop of 20.4 bcfd from February 8-17 in 2021, according to LSEG data.

Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through February 6, with the most frigid days expected around January 24-31.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 152.4 bcfd this week to 162.1 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

With temperatures forecast to average just 22.0 degrees Fahrenheit (-5.6 Celsius) across the country on January 24 and continue averaging in the low 20s F through January 31, LSEG projected total demand, including exports, would reach 180.6 bcfd on January 26. That demand forecast was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

But that figure would fall just short of the Lower 48 daily demand record of 181.2 bcfd set on January 21, 2025, when temperatures across the country averaged just 19.4 F, according to LSEG data.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have held at 18.5 bcfd so far in January, matching the monthly record high set in December.