SOFTS-Raw sugar rebounds from one-month low but downside risks prevail

SAO PAULO, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Raw sugar futures on the ICE exchange rebounded on Friday after hitting a one-month low, but finished down 1.9% compared with the previous week's close, as more supply is now expected from India, the world's second-largest producer.

SUGAR

Raw sugar SBc1 closed up 2.3% at 14.82 cents per lb, having hit a more than one-month low of 14.38 on Thursday.

Broker StoneX cited rumours that No. 2 producer India needs to raise its 1.5 million ton sugar export quota for next year by an additional 0.5-1.5 million tons as capping sugar's upside.

Government officials on Thursday said India's output is projected to rise 18% in 2025/26, and the country will manage the excess by allowing exports.

Demand is meanwhile flagging in key consuming countries such as China and the U.S, while the Brazilian real BLR= remains weak versus the dollar.

Given the above, the market is likely to drift lower into the year-end unless a bullish trigger emerges, said StoneX.

In news, Ukraine has harvested 10.74 million metric tons of sugar from 99.2% of the sown area as of Dec 18, data showed.

White sugar LSUc1 rose 2.45% to end the session at $426.10 per metric ton.

COFFEE

Arabica coffee KCc1 declined to end the session down 1.3% at $3.4065 per lb, having hit a fresh-month low earlier of $3.4055 earlier in the session.

Arabica has been trending lower since the Trump administration removed tariffs on coffee imports from top grower Brazil last month and as benign Brazilian weather bodes well for next year's crop.

U.S. coffee lovers hoping President Donald Trump's tariff rollbacks last month will soon lower the cost of their daily caffeine hit had better think again. Most of the added costs of tariffs have yet to reach consumers.

World coffee output for the 2025-2026 harvest is expected to hit a record 178.8 million 60-kilogram bags according to a report published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday.

Overall output is expected to increase by 3.5 million bags versus the previous cycle as recovery in Vietnam and record output from Indonesia compensate for lower production in Brazil and Colombia, the USDA said.

Robusta coffee LRCc2 settled down 0.2% at $3,669 per ton, gravitating back towards its lowest price in four months of $3,666 on Thursday.

COCOA

New York cocoa CCc1 closed down 1.5% at $5,845 a ton, hitting a weekly loss of 6.1%.

Broker ADM ISI said the market is generally of the view that production in top grower Ivory Coast will rise this season, but recent above normal rains could provide a temporary reduction in port arrivals that might spook the bears.

London cocoa LCCc1 ended the session down 1.0% at 4,284 pounds per ton.