Brazil crop agency cuts 2025/26 soy output forecast

By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Brazilian crop agency Conab lowered the country's 2025/26 soybean production forecast by around 550,000 metric tons on Thursday to 177.12 million tons, still a record if the projection is confirmed.

The agency cited irregular rainfall in some areas last month, which meant farmers had to replant their fields.

After rains normalized in the second half of November in most regions, farmers were able to advance soy planting. Conab estimates 90% of soybean areas had been sowed by early December, similar to the average of previous years, according to its latest estimates.

It is possible some soy will be ready as early as January, allowing Brazil to start exporting. Conab says the country will ship an estimated 112 million tons of soy in the current season.

Brazil sells most of its output to China, which processes it for livestock feed.

Conab also said Brazilian farmers had finished planting their soy in Brazil's biggest farming state Mato Grosso and in many parts of the country.

However, a lack of rains has impacted soy cultivation in Rio Grande do Sul, in southern Brazil, traditionally a big producer of the oilseed.

This season, Brazilian farmers are expected to sow 48.9 million hectares (120.8 million acres) with soybeans, 3.4% higher than the last season.

Delays in soybean planting may push back sowing of Brazil's so-called second corn, which is cultivated in the same areas as soybeans after the oilseed is harvested.

Conab expects 110.46 million tons of second corn production, but that projection is still based on statistical models. Total corn production is pegged at nearly 139 million tons, roughly the same as in November's forecast.

Any delays to plant second corn increase climate risk for farmers, according to analysts.

Instead of planting second corn this year, farmers may opt to cultivate alternative crops such as sorghum or beans, Conab said.