US natural gas futures rise on increased demand and LNG exports
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Wednesday on forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected and near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
Limiting those price gains were forecasts for milder weather over the next two weeks than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and a reduction in prices around the world.
Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.3 cents, or 1.4%, to $4.637 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest since November 26.
In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian shale basin in West Texas fell into negative territory for the first time since mid-November as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.
It was the 32nd time Waha prices traded below zero this year and compares with an average of $1.26 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).
Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states held around 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, the same as November's monthly record high.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall to a three-week low of around 108.9 bcfd on Wednesday, putting it down about 2.4 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28.
Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 5% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through December 25, reducing the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 145.3 bcfd this week to 144.8 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.
Around the world, gas prices held near 19-month lows of about $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia.
Global prices have declined in recent weeks with a slow start to the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future. NG/EU
| Week ended Dec 5 Forecast | Week ended Nov 28 Actual | Year ago | Five-year average Dec 5 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -112 | -12 | -167 | -89 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,811 | 3,923 | 3,774 | 3,643 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.6% | +5.1% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.46 | 4.57 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.15 | 9.37 | 13.83 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 10.85 | 10.87 | 14.34 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 389 | 396 | 366 | 382 | 426 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 395 | 401 | 371 | 387 | 430 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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| Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 110.3 | 109.7 | 109.5 | 104.6 | 99.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.8 | 10.0 | 9.4 | N/A | 8.9 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 120.2 | 119.8 | 119.0 | N/A | 108.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 19.0 | 18.6 | 13.7 | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.4 | 17.6 | 18.1 | 15.4 | 14.9 |
U.S. Residential | 29.4 | 29.6 | 30.3 | 25.4 | 24.2 |
U.S. Power Plant | 35.0 | 35.1 | 33.4 | 33.9 | 33.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.1 | 26.0 | 26.1 | 25.3 | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 116.6 | 116.9 | 116.6 | 108.6 | 108.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 144.7 | 145.3 | 144.8 | N/A | 129.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 101 | 96 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 96 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 101 | 98 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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| Week ended Dec 12 | Week ended Dec 5 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
Wind | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 40 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 21 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 4.76 | 5.19 | 3.02 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 5.15 | 6.98 | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.87 | 4.49 | 3.42 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 4.27 | 4.63 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 4.32 | 4.80 | 2.82 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 16.55 | 19.50 | 8.16 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 4.10 | 4.74 | 3.54 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -0.98 | 0.72 | 2.28 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.43 | 2.33 | 1.26 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 175.17 | 213.29 | 85.01 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 80.99 | 125.49 | 43.03 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 24.39 | 40.74 | 42.33 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 34.44 | 36.00 | 32.02 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 40.06 | 43.92 | 39.19 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
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