US natural gas futures dip 3% as mild weather trims demand

ReutersDec 9, 2025 3:05 PM

Near-record gas output allows for increased storage levels
Meteorologists project mild US weather through late December
Global gas prices at 19-month lows on Ukraine peace talks, mild winter
Gas flows to LNG export plants near record high

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a one-week low on Tuesday on forecasts for less cold weather and demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage and lower prices around the world.

Limiting losses was an increase in the amount of gas flowing to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants to near record levels.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 17.0 cents, or 3.5%, to $4.742 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states held at 109.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, the same as November's monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd.

On a daily basis, however, output was on track to fall to around 108.4 bcfd on Tuesday, putting it down about 2.8 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 111.3 bcfd on November 28.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of fuel in storage at about 5% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through Dec. 24, reducing the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 143.7 bcfd this week to 142.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.8 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

In LNG news, Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Tuesday in a sign that one of its three liquefaction trains returned to service after shutting down on Monday.

The Imsaikah LNG vessel, meanwhile, docked at Exxon Mobil XOM.N/QatarEnergy's 2.4-bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data.

The ship is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the plant's commissioning. The facility is expected to start producing LNG later this year or early next year.

Around the world, gas prices held near 19-month lows of about $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and $11 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia.

Global prices have declined in recent weeks with a slow start to the winter heating season and hopes peace talks over Ukraine could result in lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future. NG/EU

	Week ended Dec 5 Forecast	Week ended Nov 28 Actual	Year ago Dec 5	Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-112	-12	-167	-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,811	3,923	3,774	3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.6%	+5.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.80	4.91	3.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.33	9.27	13.83	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.87	10.88	14.34	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	396	421	366	382	423
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	6	4	5	5	4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	402	425	371	387	427

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.3	109.7	109.6	104.6	99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	9.8	9.8	9.4	N/A	8.9
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	120.2	119.6	119.0	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.5	3.4	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.3	6.1	6.1	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.8	19.0	18.5	13.7	12.8
U.S. Commercial	17.4	17.5	17.8	15.4	14.9
U.S. Residential	29.4	29.3	29.6	25.4	24.2
U.S. Power Plant	35.0	33.9	32.6	33.9	33.6
U.S. Industrial	26.1	25.9	26.0	25.3	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution	3.1	3.1	3.0	3.1	4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	116.6	115.2	114.6	108.6	108.0
Total U.S. Demand	144.7	143.7	142.6	N/A	129.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	96	95	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	96	93	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	98	96	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 12	Week ended Dec 5	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	11	11	10	11
Solar	3	3	5	4	3
Hydro	6	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	40	42	41	38
Coal	21	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL		5.19	3.02	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL		6.98	3.31	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL		4.49	3.42	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL		4.63	2.70	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL		4.80	2.82	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL		19.50	8.16	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL		4.74	3.54	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL		0.72	2.28	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL		2.33	1.26	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	213.29	215.00	85.01	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	125.49	104.95	43.03	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	40.74	30.29	42.33	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	36.00	34.48	32.02	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	43.92	42.12	39.19	31.30	58.87

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