US natural gas futures surge 4% to 35-month high in cold snap

ReutersDec 5, 2025 2:27 PM

Extreme cold boosts cash prices to highest since last winter
Gas flows to LNG export plants near record high
Gas prices rise despite forecasts for milder weather
Record gas output allows for increased storage levels
Global gas prices fall amid hopes for Ukraine peace talks

By Scott DiSavino

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 4% to a fresh 35-month high as homes and businesses continued to crank up their heaters to escape a week of extreme cold, while flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants remained near record highs.

Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 20.1 cents, or 4.0%, to $5.263 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since December 27, 2022, for a third day in a row.

Prices increased on Friday despite forecasts for less cold weather and lower demand next week than previously expected, near-record output, ample amounts of gas in storage - and a collapse in gas prices in Europe and Asia.

For the week, the front month was up about 9%, keeping it on track to climb for a seventh week in a row for the first time since 2013. During those seven weeks, the contract has soared about 75%.

In the cash market, extreme cold so far this week caused next-day gas prices to soar to their highest since February 2023 in New England NG-CG-BS-SNL, their highest since January 2025 in California NG-SCL-CGT-SNL NG-CG-PGE-SNL, and their highest since February 2025 at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana and in Pennsylvania NG-PCN-APP-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL and Alberta NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Canada.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, down from a monthly record high of 109.6 bcfd in November.

Record output has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, leaving the amount of gas in storage about 5% above normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain colder than normal through December 8 before turning mostly near normal from December 9-20.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would fall from 144.4 bcfd this week to 141.4 bcfd next week before rising to 143.4 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Thursday.

Average gas flows to the eight large LNG export plants operating in the U.S. eased to 18.1 bcfd so far this month, down from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.

Around the world, gas prices fell to a 23-month low near $9 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, mostly on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. That could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more gas in the future. NG/EU

Elsewhere, prices at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark JKMc1 in Asia slid to an 18-month low of around $11 per mmBtu.

	Week ended Dec 5 Forecast	Week ended Nov 28 Actual	Year ago Dec 5	Five-year average Dec 5
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-112	-12	-167	-89
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,811	3,923	3,774	3,643
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.6%	+5.1%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	5.10	5.06	3.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.30	9.36	13.83	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	10.90	10.99	14.34	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	423	429	397	360	408
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	6	5	3	6	4
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	429	434	400	366	412

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	110.5	110.3	109.3	103.7	99.3
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.8	9.9	9.2	N/A	8.9
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	119.2	120.2	118.5	N/A	108.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.2	3.0	3.0	N/A	3.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.1	6.1	6.0	N/A	5.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.6	18.8	19.1	14.2	12.8
U.S. Commercial	12.1	17.4	17.0	17.5	14.9
U.S. Residential	18.9	29.4	28.2	29.3	24.2
U.S. Power Plant	31.4	35.0	33.7	36.3	33.6
U.S. Industrial	24.3	26.1	25.8	26.2	25.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.5	5.4	5.4	5.5	5.7
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.5	3.1	3.0	2.5	4.2
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	94.8	116.5	113.3	117.4	108.0
Total U.S. Demand	122.8	144.4	141.4	N/A	129.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	96	90	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	94	88	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	95	89	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Dec 5	Week ended Nov 28	2024	2023	2022
Wind	12	11	11	10	11
Solar	4	5	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	39	42	41	38
Coal	19	8	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	21	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	4.89	4.86	3.02	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	6.49	5.85	3.31	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	4.62	4.70	3.42	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	4.34	4.39	2.70	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	4.49	4.80	2.82	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	20.75	25.00	8.16	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.79	4.90	3.54	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.25	1.80	2.28	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	2.23	2.31	1.26	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	198.32	189.27	85.01	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	92.31	75.32	43.03	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	30.55	42.69	42.33	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	33.25	40.83	32.02	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	38.52	46.52	39.19	31.30	58.87

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