METALS-Copper hits record high after Citi lifts price outlook

Dec 5 (Reuters) - Copper jumped to a record high on Friday after Citi lifted its price outlook for the metal, while a weak dollar also provided support ahead of an expected U.S. rate cut next week.

Benchmark three-month copper CMUCU3 on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.7% at $11,635 per metric ton as of 1736 GMT. The metal, widely used in power, construction and manufacturing, earlier rose as much as 2.2% to an all-time peak of $11,705.

LME copper is on course to end the week up 3.9% and has gained more than 30% in 2025.

"I think copper is a slow burn on the upside. The funds are now getting behind it because they can see shortages developing," said SP Angel analyst John Meyer, referring to a series of supply constraints at key mines.

Citi expects copper to continue climbing into early next year and average about $13,000 in the second quarter, up from $12,000 in its October outlook, with its bull case rising to $15,000 from $14,000.

The bank says prices will remain supported by macro-fund buying as investors position for a soft U.S. economic landing, alongside a widening supply shortage.

Such forecasts "help to encourage a few of the bigger funds into copper," Meyer said. "It's a story that has been building momentum."

Additional tightness is expected from U.S. stockpiling linked to the Comex–LME arbitrage, Citi said. Still, the premium of the cash LME copper contract CMCU0-3 over the three-month forward has eased to $33 a ton, from around $88 on Wednesday, suggesting there is less urgency for immediate metal.

"The backwardation was crazy so investors just closed the position and took profit," one trader said. Backwardation is market structure where immediate deliveries command a premium over later deliveries. The zinc spread CMZN0-3 backwardation also narrowed but was still at around $145 a ton.

Three-month zinc CMZN3 was last up 0.2% at $3,094 after touching $3,125, its highest in almost a year, while nickel CMNI3 nudged up 0.3% to $14,935.

Aluminium CMAL3 slipped 0.4% to $2,891.50, while tin CMSN3 fell 0.6% to $39,985 and lead CMPB3 lost 0.5% to $2,004.