Goldman Sachs lifts average H1 2026 LME copper price forecast to $10,710/t

Dec 3 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Wednesday lifted its average LME copper price forecast for the first half of 2026 to $10,710 per metric ton, up from $10,415/t earlier.

"Copper is our 'favourite' industrial metal as constrained mine supply growth and structural demand growth from grid & power infrastructure move the market towards balanced in 2026, from oversupplied in 2025," the bank said in a note.

It also noted that higher ex-U.S. premia and conversations with physical traders point to a larger-than-expected reacceleration of copper flows into the U.S. in the first half of 2026 ahead of a potential tariff, which should further tighten the ex-U.S. market.

Benchmark LME three-month copper CMCU3 was up 1.8% at $11,347 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading after touching a record high of $11,434.50. MET/L

Goldman added that it sees the LME aluminium price declining to $2,350/t by Q4 2026, as current prices encourage producers to ramp up output, especially in Indonesia, at a pace that may exceed actual demand growth.

"Potential switching from aluminium to steel in the autos sector adds to the downside price risk," the note said.

Strong supply growth, mostly as a result of Chinese overseas investments, drives Goldman's bearish price forecasts for aluminium, lithium and iron ore, the note said.

It forecast that aluminium, lithium, and iron ore prices will decline by 18%, 23%, and 17% respectively from spot by end-2026.