US natural gas futures set for third straight monthly gain on cold weather outlook

ReutersNov 28, 2025 3:28 PM

By Noel John

Nov 28 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed over 3% on Friday to a near nine-month high, and were poised for a third straight monthly gain, driven by forecasts for colder weather and higher demand, while a bigger-than-expected storage withdrawal data this week provided support.

Contracts were higher as trading resumed after an outage at CME Group brought trading in currencies, commodities and equities futures to a standstill around the world.

Gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 16.8 cents, or 3.7%, to $4.73 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract was up 3.4% so far this week.

"Natural gas prices were higher as this winter storm is going to be bearing down on a big part of the nation and obviously we're seeing an increase in expectations of demand," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday that energy firms pulled 11 billion cubic feet of gas out of storage during the week ended November 21.

That was bigger than the 2-bcf withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compares with a decline of 2 bcf during the same week last year and an average decline of 25 bcf over the past five years (2020-2024). EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Uncertainty surrounding the Russia–Ukraine peace talks is adding upward momentum, as expectations that sanctions on Russian natural gas exports may remain in place continue to support prices, added Flynn.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called the Ukrainian leadership illegitimate and said it was senseless to sign any documents with them.

Natural gas prices rose for the third consecutive month, gaining 10.5% in November. "We anticipate additional price strength due to the upcoming extreme cold and snowy conditions that will be sweeping across the upper mid-continent during the upcoming weekend with below normal temperatures widely anticipated during the next couple of weeks within the nation's northeast quadrant," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 4% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, at 140.6 bcfd this week, which is much higher than 118.3 bcfd the prior week. Forecast for next week was slightly down at 136.5 bcfd.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged higher, rebounding from an 18-month low on Thursday as weak storage levels provided support. NG/EU

Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices hit their lowest level in eight weeks on continued muted demand and high inventories, tracking a drop in European gas prices on hopes of a Ukraine peace deal.

	Week ended Nov 21 Actual	Week ended Nov 14 Actual	Year ago Nov 21	Five-year average Nov 21
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	-11	-14	-2	-25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,935	3,946	3,967	3,775
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+3.8%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.68	4.55	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.00	9.97	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.12	11.13	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD)	412	414	348	307	327
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD)	5	6	2	5	5
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD)	417	420	350	312	332

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.5	111.0	110.4	103.6	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.7	9.0	9.0	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	118.2	120.0	119.4	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	3.0	3.1	3.1	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.0	6.2	6.2	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	18.3	18.9	18.4	13.9	12.2
U.S. Commercial	10.9	17.2	16.3	13.1	11.0
U.S. Residential	16.3	28.8	27.2	20.7	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	32.3	31.8	31.4	30.9	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.5	25.9	25.4	24.6	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.5	5.5	5.4	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.4	3.0	2.9	2.4	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	91.0	112.4	108.7	97.2	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	118.3	140.6	136.5	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	88	87	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	85	85	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	86	86	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 28	Week ended Nov 21	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	11	11	10	11
Solar	4	5	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	40	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	21	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	4.59	4.12	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	4.11	4.03	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	4.34	4.33	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.75	3.75	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.92	3.91	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	7.70	6.97	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.63	4.42	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.28	0.74	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	3.00	2.18	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	78.88	78.88	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	52.14	38.71	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	55.57	55.46	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	41.20	35.00	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	47.75	37.41	30.01	31.30	58.87

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