Goldman Sachs Sees Downside Risks to Crude and Refined Product Prices From Potential Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

Nov 26 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• ESTIMATE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO CRUDE PRICES, AND ESPECIALLY REFINED OIL PRODUCT PRICES, IF SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA'S OIL SECTOR WERE TO BE LIFTED

• SAYS ITS BASE CASE STILL ASSUMES A STATUS QUO FOR SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN OIL, AN EXTENSION OF THE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN RUSSIA PRODUCTION, AND A DECLINE IN BRENT/WTI OIL PRICES TO $56/52 IN 2026 ON STRONG SUPPLY OUTSIDE OF RUSSIA

• ESTIMATES $4-5 OF DOWNSIDE TO OUR BRENT/WTI 2026 PRICE FORECAST FROM A POTENTIAL PEACE DEAL, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A GRADUAL RECOVERY IN RUSSIA PRODUCTION AND INCREASE LANDED OIL INVENTORIES IN THE OECD PRICING CENTERS IF RUSSIAN OIL ON WATER MODERATES

• SAYS THE IMMEDIATE DOWNSIDE TO CRUDE PRICES FROM A POTENTIAL DEAL IS MODEST, IN THEIR VIEW, BECAUSE THE MARKET IS ALREADY PRICING IN SOME PROBABILITY OF A DEAL AND BECAUSE IT WOULD LIKELY TAKE TIME FOR RUSSIA PRODUCTION TO RECOVER