Brazil forecasts record chicken output despite bird flu outbreak

By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Brazil's chicken meat production will reach a record-high 15.86 million metric tons in 2026, Brazilian crop agency Conab forecast on Wednesday, a year after its bird flu outbreak.

Conab estimates Brazilian chicken meat output this year at 15.5 million tons, above the 15.4 million tons forecast by poultry and pork industry lobby group ABPA.

Either figure would represent record chicken meat output in the world's largest exporter this year.

The data underscores the resilience of meat companies, including global firms JBS JBS.N and MBRF MBRF3.SA, as Brazil grappled with temporary trade embargos from China, Europe and other large buyers after the country reported its first bird flu outbreak on a commercial farm.

"Sales on the international market were affected by a case of avian influenza in May in Rio Grande do Sul," Conab said. "Even so, shipments remained strong, with other markets absorbing a significant chunk of production, mitigating the impact on exports."

Highly pathogenic avian influenza, or bird flu, has defied poultry industry executives and governments worldwide, leading to the death of hundreds of millions of birds in recent years, and disrupting supply and global trade.

Brazil's strong chicken meat production outlook has boosted domestic availability, even with slightly higher exports, Conab said.

The agency estimated shipments this year of 5.2 million tons, higher than the 5.15 million tons in 2024 and in line with the top range of ABPA's August estimate.

ABPA will release fresh projections for Brazilian chicken, pork and egg production and exports on December 3.

China, a top destination for Brazil's chicken meat, lifted the bird-flu-related embargo on Brazilian imports this month.