US natgas falls on stronger-than-expected storage build

ReutersNov 14, 2025 7:54 PM

By Anushree Mukherjee

Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures declined on Friday, driven by a federal report showing a bigger-than-expected storage build last week.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 8 cents or 1.7% lower, at $4.566 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). The contract hit its highest level since March 10 in the previous session.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms injected 45 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended November 7.

The build surpassed analyst expectations for a 34 bcf increase in a Reuters poll and compares with a boost of 45 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year average build of 35 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

"Definitely a shock based off the expectations, a much bigger than expected increase in supplies that caught the market," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group, adding that the market was already down because of warm weather expectations.

Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, to rise to 117.3 bcfd this week from 108.6 bcfd the previous week.

LSEG estimated 257 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 253 estimated on Thursday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October.

"Overall the market will remain supported by strong export demands from LNG," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

"December should be able to easily hold above $4 through expiration, with a $4.25-$4.60 range most likely."

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices on Friday morning rose off an 18-month low hit a day earlier, as temperatures are forecast to fall sharply next week, increasing energy demand that should also see a step-up in gas storage withdrawals. NG/EU

	Week ended Nov 7 Actual	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Year ago Nov 7	Five-year average Nov 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	45	+33	+45	+25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,960	3,915	3,966	3,788
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.5%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.5	4.6	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10	9.82	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.13	11.14	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	257	253	219	262	263
U.S. GFS CDDs	16	16	7	9	8
U.S. GFS TDDs	273	269	226	271	271

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.1	108.8	108.7	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.3	8.0	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.2	117.1	116.7	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.7	2.8	2.7	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.2	6.5	6.5	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.5	18.2	18.1	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	9.1	11.2	12.0	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	12.4	16.8	18.6	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	29.4	30.4	29.0	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.6	23.6	24.0	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	82.2	89.8	91.4	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	108.6	117.3	118.7	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	90	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	85	88	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	86	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 14	Week ended Nov 7	2024	2023	2022
Wind	14	15	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	42	41	38
Coal	17	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.60	3.6	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.20	3.19	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.78	3.81	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.13	3.11	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.19	3.39	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.98	4.03	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.79	4.10	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.07	1.22	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.90	1.67	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	62.81	63.98	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	55.71	56.29	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.15	41.58	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	36.82	40.33	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	44.45	43.74	30.01	31.30	58.87

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.