Reuters Gulf Currents Newsletter – Aid Pivot: Lebanon Out, Syria In

By Andrew Mills
Deputy Bureau Chief, Gulf

I’m writing from Beirut this week, where fears of renewed conflict grow as Israel steps up strikes despite last year’s ceasefire — and where hopes for Gulf aid to rebuild after last year’s war have all but vanished. Our analysis explains why Saudi Arabia and Qatar are channelling billions into Syria while Lebanon, scarred again by war, is left behind.

Plus: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman heads to Washington for talks with U.S. President Donald Trump on F-35 jets, a scaled-back defence pact, and that elusive $600 million investment pledge.

Meanwhile, Riyadh braces for the antics of social media sensation Mr. Beast.

For occasional updates from Reuters’s Gulf team between editions of the newsletter – plus snapshots from a reporter’s life in the Gulf – follow me on Instagram @and.mills.

NEWS BRIEFING

MbS is set to make a rare trans-Atlantic flight next week ahead of Tuesday’s visit with Trump. Reuters reported on several key items to be on the lookout for this week during MbS’s visit:

F-35 Fighter Jets: Will Washington allow Riyadh to buy the 48 F-35 fighter jets it has asked for? The Pentagon signed off on the request this week and, if Trump gives final approval, it would mark a major policy shift, altering the military balance in the Middle East and testing how the U.S. defines maintaining Israel’s “qualitative military edge” in the region.

Saudi Investments in the U.S. MbS told Trump in May that his kingdom would invest $600 million in the U.S. but provided few details to back up the promise. Will the Saudi investment strategy become clear on Wednesday during the U.S.-Saudi investment summit to be held at Washington’s John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts?

Defence Pact: MbS and Trump are set to seal a long-sought defences deal at the White House, which should define the scope of U.S. military protection to Saudi Arabia and cement America's military footprint in the Gulf. How far will it go? Reuters reported this week that the deal has been scaled back and will fall short of the full, Congress-ratified treaty Riyadh once sought in exchange for the long-promised normalisation of ties with Israel, which won’t be on the table.

SAUDI AND QATAR REWRITE AID RULES, LEAVING LEBANON OUT

In the 11 months since Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have pledged billions to help rebuild Syria—a country the World Bank estimates needs at least $216 billion to recover. This week, Syria’s transitional president scored a partial win from Washington which extended a suspension of the enforcement of the so-called Caesar sanctions, potentially unlocking more international support.

Across the mountains, Lebanon’s picture is far bleaker.

The 2024 conflict with Israel destroyed swaths of Lebanon’s south and east, leaving the country with a huge reconstruction bill.

Expectations for Gulf money were low, after years of frayed ties driven by Gulf frustration with the dominance of Shi’ite militia Hezbollah, stalled reforms and security concerns.

Previously Saudi Arabia and Qatar were Lebanon’s go-to reconstruction patrons and poured billions into post-war recovery efforts, especially after the 2006 war with Israel and the 2020 Beirut blast.

Today, Saudi and Qatari aid is increasingly guided by strategic returns and political leverage, with funding tied to clear benchmarks rather than unconditional support.

“When last year’s war ended, Lebanon’s politicians and people knew deep down that they would not see a replay of 2006, when money came flooding in,” says Reuters bureau chief in Beirut Maya Gebeily.

Instead, Riyadh and Washington set explicit conditions — chiefly Hezbollah’s disarmament — as prerequisites for serious reconstruction finance.

“Hopes then shattered because the prerequisites are in fact extremely complex and sensitive,” Gebeily says.

Nearly a year after the November 2024 ceasefire, Hezbollah rejects disarmament and Lebanon’s army is racing to meet a deadline to disarm the militia in the south.

Qatar’s financing of Lebanese army salaries is a modest exception, tolerated by Washington as a stabilizer. Meanwhile, Doha and Riyadh channel attention to post-conflict Syria, where political capital can be converted into strategic stakes.

The divergence is instructive. In today’s Gulf calculus, political leverage and return on investment outrank the humanitarian appeals or Arab fraternity that once opened the coffers for Lebanon.

CHART OF THE WEEK

“At an industry gathering in Abu Dhabi last week, heads of oil trading houses predicted that Brent oil prices would stay within the $60 to $70 range next year, with some suggesting that the feared oversupply may not be as large as the IEA predicts.

That is partly because of disagreements about demand. While the IEA expects consumption to grow by 700,000 bpd this year, OPEC analysts peg growth at nearly double that rate at 1.3 million bpd. China's huge stockpiling this year, for which Beijing does not provide any data, has further confused the demand picture.” Read more from Ron Bousso.

THE LAST WAVE

After conquering YouTube with 100 billion views, social media sensation Mr. Beast is coming for Riyadh’s weekend plans with his pop-up theme park Beast Land, which opens on Thursday for a six-week run.

Watch out for a hard-hitting interview with the phenom expected on Reuters.com later on Thursday.

In an Instagram reel he posted Wednesday, boosted by Saudi entertainment czar Turki Al Sheikh, Mr. Beast teased: “This theme park is filled with some of the most insane challenges and craziest prizes we have ever given away... At Beast Land we have custom-made games that are inspired off our YouTube channel.”

Details are under wraps until Mr. Beast officially opens the park later on Thursday, but we think Saudis should expect giant obstacle courses, treasure hunts with suspiciously generous rewards and possibly a rollercoaster that ends in a Lamborghini giveaway.

If you’ve ever wanted to win $10,000 for eating a spicy pepper while blindfolded on a zipline—your moment may have arrived.

Want to receive this newsletter every Thursday, or know someone who would? You can subscribe here.