US CPC sees 61% chance of La Nina transition by early 2026

Nov 13 (Reuters) - La Nina is expected to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a 61% chance of a shift to El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions between January and March 2026, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.

WHY IT'S IMPORTANT

• La Nina is part of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

• La Nina results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.

KEY QUOTES

• "The La Nina should be brief and weak. Most of the long-range models show a warming back to neutral by early next year," said Donald Keeney, agricultural meteorologist at Vaisala Weather.

• "The weak La Nina in the short term does equate to drier conditions in the central and southern plains and northeastern Argentina, and wetter conditions in central and northwestern Brazil," he added.

CONTEXT

• Japan's weather bureau said this week neither the El Nino nor the La Nina phenomenon was occurring now but that conditions were closer to La Nina.

• Meanwhile, Chinese forecasters expect the La Nina weather phenomenon to affect the country from late autumn to early 2026, according to China's national broadcaster last month.