US natural gas futures edge lower on forecasts for milder weather, softer demand

ReutersNov 13, 2025 2:37 PM

Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged lower on Thursday as expectations for milder temperatures and softer demand weighed on the market outlook.

Front-month gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.1% to $4.53 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 09:08 a.m. EST (1408 GMT). The contract hit its highest level since March 11 in the previous session.

"I think the cold weather that we're experiencing is going to moderate. And so that's why there is some pressure downward on the market," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.

Financial company LSEG expects average gas demand across the Lower 48 U.S. states, including exports, will ease slightly from 119.2 bcfd this week to 117.8 bcfd next week.

LSEG estimated 253 heating degree days (HDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly higher than the 228 estimated on Tuesday. HDDs, which measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is below 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius), are used to estimate demand to heat homes and businesses.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has risen to 17.8 bcfd so far in November, up from a record 16.7 bcfd in October, and those flows are on track to increase further in coming months.

"The LNG export market is acting as a strong demand driver, putting a floor under prices,” Saal added.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has risen to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, up from 107.0 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output so far this year has allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meanwhile, ADNOC Gas reported an 8% rise in its third-quarter net profit to $1.34 billion on Thursday, its highest-ever for the period, as strong domestic demand and improved margins offset a weaker oil price environment.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British gas prices were slightly down on Thursday, trading in a narrow range amid weak demand due to warm weather, which is expected to become colder over the coming week. NG/EU

	Week ended Nov 7 Forecast	Week ended Oct 31 Actual	Year ago Nov 7	Five-year average Nov 7
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+33	+33	+45	+25
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,948	3,915	3,966	3,788
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.2%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	4.5	4.54	2.98	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	9.82	10.87	13.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.14	11.13	14.12	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	253	252	216	259	259
U.S. GFS CDDs	16	15	7	9	8
U.S. GFS TDDs	269	267	223	268	267

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	109.1	109.3	109.4	101.3	99.2
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.1	8.3	8.1	N/A	8.1
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	117.2	117.6	117.5	N/A	107.3

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.7	2.6	2.6	N/A	2.9
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.2	6.3	6.5	N/A	5.7
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	17.5	18.3	18.2	12.8	12.2
U.S. Commercial	9.1	11.6	11.5	7.9	11.0
U.S. Residential	12.4	17.2	17.5	10.4	15.7
U.S. Power Plant	29.4	31.1	30.0	34.5	30.0
U.S. Industrial	23.6	24.1	23.7	22.7	24.2
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.4	5.4	5.3	5.3
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.2	2.4	2.4	2.2	3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	82.2	92.0	90.5	83.1	89.7
Total U.S. Demand	108.6	119.1	117.8	N/A	110.5

N/A = Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	86	88	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Nov 14	Week ended Nov 7	2024	2023	2022
Wind	14	15	11	10	11
Solar	6	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	37	36	42	41	38
Coal	17	16	16	17	21
Nuclear	20	20	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.6	NA	2.10	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.19	NA	1.99	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.81	NA	3.29	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.11	NA	1.83	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.39	NA	1.98	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	4.03	NA	2.70	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.10	NA	2.55	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.22	NA	0.33	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.67	NA	0.98	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	63.98	66.39	44.71	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	56.29	58.14	35.99	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	41.58	NA	37.13	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	40.33	NA	29.23	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	43.74	46.00	30.01	31.30	58.87

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