US natural gas futures ease ahead of federal storage report

ReutersOct 23, 2025 2:04 PM

Storage build expected to be slightly larger than usual
LNG export flows near record highs
Seasonally cold weather forecast boosts heating demand
Lower 48 states see decline in gas output
Gas storage levels about 4% above normal, easing supply concerns

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased on Wednesday ahead of a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was slightly bigger than usual for this time of year, keeping ample amounts of fuel in inventory.

That small decline came despite forecasts for more demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, a fall in output so far this month and near-record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4 cents, or 1.2%, to $3.41 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT).

Analysts forecast energy firms injected a slightly larger than normal 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 17 when the weather was milder than usual.

That compares with an increase of 79 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 77 bcf over the past five years. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Melissa would strengthen into a hurricane on Saturday as it slowly heads north and then west across the Caribbean Sea toward Jamaica. The system is not expected to reach the U.S. mainland during that time.

Even though storms can boost U.S. gas prices by cutting output along the U.S. Gulf Coast, they are more likely to reduce prices by shutting LNG export plants and knocking out power to homes and businesses. About 40% of the power generated in the U.S. comes from gas-fired plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country would remain mostly near-normal through November 7.

With the weather turning seasonally colder, LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 101.6 bcfd this week to 107.0 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.5 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

In other LNG news, Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd export plant in Texas was on track to take in more gas on Thursday after one of its three liquefaction trains shut on Wednesday, according to LSEG data and a company filing with state environmental regulators.

	Week ended Oct 17 Forecast	Week ended Oct 10 Actual	Year ago Oct 17	Five-year average Oct 17
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+81	+80	+79	+77
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,802	3,721	3,774	3,644
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.3%	+4.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.46	3.45	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.03	10.96	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.16	11.22	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) HDDs	191	189	105	174	192
U.S. GFS CDDs	28	27	52	32	23
U.S. GFS TDDs	219	216	157	206	215

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.7	106.6	106.6	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.3	7.5	7.0	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.0	114.1	113.7	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.2	2.1	2.1	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.5	6.8	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.8	16.8	17.2	13.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.9	6.7	8.4	6.4	6.9
U.S. Residential	6.2	7.6	11.2	7.0	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	33.0	31.3	30.5	34.1	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.7	23.3	22.3	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.2	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	74.7	75.8	80.9	77.2	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.2	101.6	107.0	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	97	96	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	92	90	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	92	89	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 24	Week ended Oct 17	2024	2023	2022
Wind	15	11	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	39	41	42	41	38
Coal	14	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.45	3.28	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	3.09	2.67	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.60	3.50	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.77	2.36	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.28	3.17	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.15	2.79	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.18	3.05	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	2.32	2.07	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.34	1.27	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	53.61	52.03	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	58.78	52.83	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.38	47.40	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	24.11	30.18	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	28.06	24.55	35.86	31.30	58.87

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