FACTBOX-JP Morgan raises gold outlook on investor interest, central bank buying
Oct 23 (Reuters) - JP Morgan on Thursday forecast gold prices reaching an average of $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026, citing expectations of sustained investor interest and steady central bank buying.
"We believe [gold] has even higher to go as we enter a Fed cutting cycle with overlays of stagflation anxiety, concerns around Fed independence, and broader debasement hedging," the bank said in its note.
JP Morgan analysts suggest that foreign holders of U.S. assets are diversifying slightly from U.S. dollars into gold.
Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan's Head of Global Commodities Strategy, said that while U.S. assets remain "core to their portfolios," companies are finding value in modestly reducing allocations.
JP Morgan estimates that a shift reducing U.S. exposure from approximately 45% to 43%, with half a percentage point redirected into gold, could drive the gold price to $6,000.
Gold prices have surged nearly 57% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, rate-cut expectations, and sustained central bank buying. The precious metal hit multiple record highs, with the latest on Monday at $4,381.21 per ounce. GOL/
Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agency | Annual Price Forecasts | Price Targets | Forecast as of | |
| 2025 | 2026 |
|
|
JP Morgan | $3,468 | $4,753 | Expects prices reaching an average of $5,055/oz by 4Q26 | October 23, 2025 |
HSBC | $3,455 | $4,600 | $4,600 per ounce by year-end 2025 | October 17, 2025 |
ANZ | $3,494 | $4,445 | $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Bank of America | $3,352 | $4,438 | 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 | October 13, 2025 |
Societe Generale | - | - | $5,000 by the end of 2026 | October 13, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | - | $4,488 |
| October 13, 2025 |
Goldman Sachs | $3,400 | $4,525 | $4,900 by December 2026 | October 7, 2025 |
Commerzbank* | $4,000 | - | $4,200 by the end of next year | October 7, 2025 |
Deutsche Bank | $3,291 | $4,000 | $4,300 by Q4-2026 | September 17, 2025 |
UBS | -
| - | Decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory, could push gold towards $4,700 | October 16, 2025 |
Citi Research | $3,400 | $3,250 | - | September 29, 2025 |
*end-of-period forecasts
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