Brazil 2025/26 sugar output expected to rise to 41.42 mln metric tons, Datagro says

SAO PAULO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Brazil's sugar production in the key center-south region in the 2025/2026 season is expected to rise 3.1% from the previous season to 41.42 million metric tons, Plinio Nastari, president of Agribusiness consultancy Datagro, said on Tuesday.

The increase is expected despite a slight drop in sugarcane processing because the percentage of cane being directed to producing sugar over ethanol is expected to hit 52.1%, up from 48.1% in the previous season.

Sugar production for the next crop year - April 2026 to March 2027 - in the center-south region was estimated at 43.2 million metric tons, Datagro said.

The forecast increase of around 4% versus the current season comes amid expectations of an increase in sugarcane processing, Nastari said at an industry event in Sao Paulo.

"We think a good estimate for 2026/27 sugarcane is around 625 million tons, but it could range from 605 million to 640 million," Nastari said, noting that the projections depend on weather conditions.

The current sugarcane crop is forecast to reach 607.38 million tons.

There are low expectations for so-called "bisada" cane — leftover raw material from the previous crop — in the 2026/27 season, after the 2025/26 harvest was hampered by weather and wildfires.

The second third of the next harvest should expect good conditions while the final third will depend on rainfall in April, Nastari said, noting that farmers are expanding planting.

The sugar production forecast for 2026/27 also assumes a cane allocation mix of 52% for sugar, in line with current levels.

Datagro expects total ethanol production from sugarcane and corn in 2025/26 to hit 33.23 billion liters, a drop of nearly 5%, as cane mills prioritize sugar over the biofuel.

That decline is expected despite a nearly 20% increase in corn ethanol output, which Datagro expects to reach around 10 billion liters in 2025/26.

Nastari did not provide a detailed forecast for total ethanol output from cane and corn in 2026/27, but said Brazil's corn ethanol production is expected to rise by 3 billion to 3.5 billion liters in the next season, versus the current period.