Goldman Sachs Expects Brent Prices To Decline To $52/Bbl In Q4 Next Year

Oct 21 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

• EXPECTS BRENT PRICES TO DECLINE FURTHER NEXT YEAR, REACHING $52/BBL IN Q4 NEXT YEAR, BUT THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL DECLINE IN PRICES MAY TAKE TIME TO MATERIALIZE FOR TWO REASONS

• SAYS FIRST, LARGER-THAN-SEASONAL OECD COMMERCIAL BUILDS IN NOVEMBER ARE LIKELY ALREADY PRICED IN, AND WE EXPECT JANUARY TO BE THE NEXT MONTH WITH ACCELERATING OECD COMMERCIAL STOCKS BUILDS (1.7MB/D). SECOND, CONTINUING STRENGTH IN DIESEL REFINING MARGINS SUPPORTS REFINING RUNS AND CRUDE DEMAND

• SAYS THEY STILL SEE MORE DOWNSIDE RISKS TO RUSSIA PRODUCTION FROM INTERNAL CHALLENGES (E.G. EXPENSIVE LOCAL CURRENCY, AGING EQUIPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGICAL SHORTAGES) AND FROM UKRAINE ATTACKS ON RUSSIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE THAN FROM INCREASING PRESSURE ON GLOBAL DEMAND FOR RUSSIAN OIL

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