US natgas prices hold near 2-week low as market waits for weekly storage report

ReutersOct 16, 2025 1:26 PM

Analysts expect near-normal storage build last week
LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high
Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures held near a two-week low on Thursday as the market waited for direction from a federal report expected to show last week's storage build was near-normal for this time of year.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 0.5 cents, or 0.2%, at $3.021 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 8:53 a.m. EDT (1253 GMT). On Wednesday, the contract closed at its lowest level since September 26 for a second day in a row.

In intraday trade, however, the front-month slid below the psychological $3 per mmBtu level of technical support for a second straight day.

That lack of price movement came ahead of the release of a federal storage report expected to show that energy firms injected 81 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 10.

That compares with an increase of 77 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 83 bcf over the past five years. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Bearish forecasts for mild weather through the end of October and ample amounts of gas in storage also offset a bullish drop in output so far this month and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 31.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 99.9 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were similar to LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.4 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

One of the primary reasons LNG export feedgas was on track to hit an all-time high in October was the record amounts of gas flowing to Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana, expected to reach 3.7 bcfd on Thursday, according to LSEG data. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of it to fuel equipment.

	Week ended Oct 10 Forecast	Week ended Oct 3 Actual	Year ago Oct 10	Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+81	+80	+77	+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,722	3,641	3,695	3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.3%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.04	3.02	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.11	10.86	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.05	11.03	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	122	115	108	137	160
U.S. GFS CDDs	39	43	45	44	30
U.S. GFS TDDs	161	158	153	181	190

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.5	106.5	106.9	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	7.3	7.1	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.4	113.9	114.0	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.2	2.2	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.1	16.8	17.0	13.9	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.3	5.9	6.7	7.0	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.9	6.1	7.4	8.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	35.8	32.8	31.2	33.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.7	22.8	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.5	74.4	75.3	78.9	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.7	99.9	101.3	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	88	89	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	87	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 17	Week ended Oct 10	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	42	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.79	2.83	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.14	2.00	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.70	3.83	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.97	1.74	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.56	2.70	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.28	2.17	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.22	3.48	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.28	0.43	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.05	1.18	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	30.69	32.99	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	45.08	52.56	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.42	57.59	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	23.25	23.50	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	23.74	21.32	35.86	31.30	58.87

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