FACTBOX-ANZ forecasts gold to hit $4,400/oz by year-end, peak at $4,600/oz by mid-2026
Oct 16 (Reuters) - ANZ on Thursday forecast gold would reach $4,400 per ounce by the end of 2025, driven by mounting geopolitical, economic, and financial uncertainties alongside expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing.
ANZ anticipates gold will peak near $4,600 per ounce by June 2026, followed by a gradual decline in the second half of 2026 as the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle and clarity emerges on U.S. economic growth and trade tariff policies.
However, the bank flagged potential downside risks, including a more hawkish Fed stance and unexpected economic growth.
"With returns exceeding 60% to $4,200/oz so far this year, the rally still looks strong and shows no signs of losing momentum. We do not see any near-term trigger that could reverse the current uptrend, though a healthy correction is possible," ANZ said.
Gold prices scaled another record high at $4,241.77 on Thursday as investors revved up their safe-haven bets after U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against China, while expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts added to the metal's allure. GOL/
UBS, meanwhile, highlighted the potential for declining real interest rates, possibly into negative territory, which it believes could further enhance gold's portfolio appeal. The investment bank sees gold rising towards its upside case of $4,700 per ounce.
Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce):
Brokerage/Agency | Annual Price Forecasts | Price Targets | Forecast as of | |
| 2025 | 2026 |
| |
ANZ | $3,494 | $4,445 | $4,400 by year-end and $4,600 by June 2026 | October 16, 2025 |
Bank of America | $3,352 | $4,438 | 2026 gold outlook raised to $5,000 | October 13, 2025 |
Societe Generale | - | - | $5000 by the end of 2026 | October 13, 2025 |
Standard Chartered | - | $4,488 | October 13, 2025 | |
Goldman Sachs | $3,400 | $4,525 | $4,900 by December 2026 | October 7, 2025 |
Commerzbank* | $4,000 | - | $4,200 by the end of next year | October 7, 2025 |
HSBC | $3,355 | $3,950 | Raises 2027 average price forecast to $3,600(from $2,925) and introduces a 2028 forecast of $3,330 | October 3, 2025 |
Deutsche Bank | $3,291 | $4,000 | $4,300 by Q4-2026 | September 17, 2025 |
UBS | - | - | Decline in real rates, potentially into negative territory could push gold towards $4,700 | October 16, 2025 |
Citi Research | $3,400 | $3,250 | - | September 29, 2025 |
*end-of-period forecasts
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