US natgas prices ease to 2-week low on mild weather, ample supplies in storage

ReutersOct 15, 2025 6:49 PM

LNG export feedgas on track to hit record high
March-April futures spread hits record low, indicating supply confidence
Gas storage levels 4% above normal for this time of year

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures eased to a fresh two-week low on ample amounts of gas in storage and forecasts for mild weather through the end of October that should keep both heating and cooling demand low.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.2 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $3.016 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since September 26 for a second day in a row.

That small decline came despite record feedgas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and higher gas demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Looking forward, the market is showing signs that traders are not worried about having enough gas supplies in storage for the winter. The premium of futures for March over April 2026 NGH26-J26 was on track to fall to a record low of around 8 cents per mmBtu.

The industry calls the March-April spread the "widow-maker" because rapid price moves resulting from changing weather forecasts have forced some speculators out of business, including the Amaranth hedge fund, which lost more than $6 billion in 2006.

Traders use the March-April and October-November NGV26-X26 spreads to bet on winter weather forecasts and supply and demand. March is the last month of the winter-heating season when utilities pull gas out of storage, and October is the last month of the summer cooling season when utilities inject gas into storage.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual. There is currently about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly warmer than normal through October 30.

That late-season warmth should reduce gas demand by cutting the amount of fuel used to heat homes and businesses by more than it boosts the amount of fuel that power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming. About 40% of the power produced in the U.S. comes from burning gas.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 100.0 bcfd this week to 101.3 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.4 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach a record of 17.4 bcfd on Wednesday, which would top the current daily record high of 17.3 bcfd on April 9, with gas flows to Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana expected to hit an all-time high of 3.7 bcfd. LNG plants can pull in more gas than they can turn into LNG since they use some of the fuel to fuel equipment.

	Week ended Oct 10 Forecast	Week ended Oct 3 Actual	Year ago Oct 10	Five-year average Oct 10
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+81	+80	+77	+83
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,722	3,641	3,695	3,567
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.3%	+4.5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.98	3.03	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.77	10.81	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.03	11.04	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	115	107	108	137	156
U.S. GFS CDDs	43	47	45	44	31
U.S. GFS TDDs	158	154	153	181	187

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	106.5	106.4	106.9	101.9	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.9	7.3	7.1	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.4	113.8	114.0	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.4	2.2	2.2	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.6	6.4	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.1	17.0	17.3	13.9	11.3
U.S. Commercial	5.3	5.9	6.6	7.0	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.9	6.1	7.3	8.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	35.8	32.8	31.3	33.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.2	22.6	22.8	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.5	74.4	75.1	78.9	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	100.7	100.0	101.3	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	94	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	89	89	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 17	Week ended Oct 10	2024	2023	2022
Wind	11	10	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	40	42	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	17	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.83	2.90	2.19	2.19	3.49
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.00	1.49	1.64	1.98	3.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.83	3.56	3.72	3.04	5.47
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.74	1.28	1.53	1.68	2.77
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.70	2.70	2.01	2.00	3.41
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.17	1.63	1.80	2.88	4.27
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.48	2.84	2.60	2.47	5.92
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.43	-1.55	0.59	0.77	2.91
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.18	0.86	0.77	0.96	2.28

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	32.99	39.61	40.14	47.35	48.44
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX	52.56	61.28	41.96	41.98	45.33
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	57.59	55.03	55.48	63.89	61.73
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	23.50	24.75	45.83	39.50	62.42
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	21.32	30.62	35.86	31.30	58.87

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Tradingkey