OPEC holds oil demand outlook, points to smaller 2026 supply deficit

By Alex Lawler

LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - OPEC made no changes on Monday to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, and implied the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases.

OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies decided to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply has raised concern of a surplus and weighed on oil prices this year.

In a monthly report on Monday, OPEC said the world economy was maintaining a solid growth trend.

While demand is seen as steady, OPEC said that OPEC+ in September raised crude output by 630,000 barrels per day to 43.05 million bpd, reflecting its earlier decisions to increase output quotas.

Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at an average 43.1 million bpd implies that the world market will see a deficit of 50,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at September's rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report.

Last month's report implied a deficit of 700,000 bpd in 2026 if OPEC+ kept pumping at August's rate.