US natgas prices edge up ahead of storage report on forecasts for cooler weather, more demand

ReutersOct 9, 2025 1:09 PM

Waha Hub prices turn negative again on pipeline constraints
Tropical Storm Jerry not expected to hit US mainland
Energy firms likely added less gas to storage than normal last week
Gas storage levels likely 4% above normal for this time of year

By Scott DiSavino

Oct 9 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Thursday on forecasts for cooler, more near-normal weather and higher demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, and a slight decline in daily output.

That price increase also came ahead of the release of a federal storage report expected to show that energy firms injected a below-normal 77 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended October 3.

That compares with an increase of 78 bcf during the same week last year and an average build of 94 bcf over the past five years. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 3.2 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.365 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) by 8:44 a.m. EDT (1244 GMT).

In the cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas fell back into negative territory on Wednesday for the 11th time in the last 12 days as ongoing pipeline maintenance, like work on Kinder Morgan's KMI.N Permian Highway, trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.

That was the 20th time Waha prices have dropped below zero so far this year and compares with an average of $1.40 per mmBtu so far in 2025, 77 cents in 2024, and $2.91 over the previous five years (2019-2023).

Waha first averaged below zero in 2019. It happened 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, and a record 49 times in 2024.

In the tropics, the U.S. National Hurricane Center projected Tropical Storm Jerry would strengthen into a hurricane on Friday after it passes the northern Caribbean Islands and then turns northeast toward the open Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Jerry is not expected to hit the U.S. mainland over the next week.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 106.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.0 bcfd in August.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-month low of 104.9 bcfd on Thursday. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day. Thursday's projected daily output was higher than forecast on Wednesday and compares with a daily record high of 109.2 bcfd on July 28.

Record output earlier this year allowed energy companies to inject more gas into storage than usual so far this summer. There was about 4% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists forecast the weather will remain mostly near normal through October 24.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would slide from 100.4 bcfd this week to 99.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 16.1 bcfd so far in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

	Week ended Oct 3 Forecast	Week ended Sep 26 Actual	Year ago Oct 3	Five-year average Oct 3
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+77	+53	+78	+94
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,638	3,561	3,618	3,484
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+4.4%	+5.0%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.34	3.33	2.58	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.94	11.24	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.12	11.14	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	116	98	89	105	131
U.S. GFS CDDs	54	62	59	58	40
U.S. GFS TDDs	170	160	148	163	171

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.3	106.2	106.5	101.7	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	6.8	6.9	7.1	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.2	113.1	113.6	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.1	2.4	2.4	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.8	6.5	6.7	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	16.2	16.2	16.5	12.6	11.3
U.S. Commercial	4.9	5.3	6.0	5.4	6.9
U.S. Residential	4.0	4.8	6.4	4.9	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	38.4	35.7	32.0	36.6	31.7
U.S. Industrial	21.9	22.1	22.3	22.1	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.2	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	76.6	75.3	74.1	76.4	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.6	100.4	99.7	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	93	94	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	87	87	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 10	Week ended Oct 3	2024	2023	2022
Wind	10	8	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	42	44	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	18	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.35	3.32
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.91	1.80
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.87	3.76
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.71	1.66
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.01	2.97
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.25	1.89
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.58	3.31
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-0.51	0.83
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.63	0.60

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	35.43	43.34
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	50.91	54.78
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	46.67	36.14
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	53.59	31.40
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	41.27	28.80

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