Goldman Sachs hikes 2026 copper forecast to $10,500, adjusts aluminium outlook

Oct 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Monday hiked its 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the metal to benefit from constrained supply following the Grasberg mine outage, while U.S. rate cuts and dollar weakness will also likely lend support.

The bank lifted its 2026 copper forecast to $10,500 per tonne from its earlier forecast of $10,000.

Copper supply constraints and increased demand for the metal from critical sectors will likely support copper to trade in the $10,000 to $11,000 per tonne range in 2026-2027, it said.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange CMCU3 declined 0.7% per metric ton to $10,640.50 by 0901 GMT.

Goldman Sachs also revised its aluminium price forecast, projecting London Metal Exchange (LME) prices to fall to $2,350 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2026 from $2,700 currently.

It previously forecast a price of $2,100/t in March 2026, betting that slowing demand growth and cost deflation will lead the market into a modest surplus in the third quarter of this year.

While these factors are playing out, U.S. rate cuts, dollar weakness and low global visible inventory will likely provide more support for aluminium prices than previously expected in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, it said.

Goldman Sachs maintained its longer-term view that growing market surpluses, driven by higher production in Indonesia, will pressure prices, with aluminium unlikely to return to $2,650/t until 2030.

It also opened a trade recommendation to short the December 2026 LME aluminium contract.

Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange CMAL3 was down 0.2% at $2,705.0 a ton.