UBS Expects Brent Crude To Stay In The $60-70/Bbl Trading Range
Oct 6 (Reuters) - UBS:
EXPECTS BRENT CRUDE TO STAY IN THE $60-70/BBL TRADING RANGE
SAYS OIL DEMAND LIKELY ALREADY PEAKED FOR THE YEAR AND SHOULD GRADUALLY FALL OVER THE COMING MONTHS
SAYS WHILE THE OPEC+ PRODUCTION QUOTA INCREASE IS 137,000 BPD FOR NOVEMBER, IT ESTIMATES THE ACTUAL VOLUME ADDITIONS WILL BE ONLY 60,000-70,000 BPD, GIVEN THAT SOME GROUP MEMBERS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING ABOVE THE QUOTA AND MUST ADJUST, THOSE THAT PREVIOUSLY OVERPRODUCED NOW MUST IMPLEMENT COMPENSATION CUTS, AND OTHERS ARE LIKELY MAXED OUT IN TERMS OF CAPACITY
EXPECTS MODESTLY LOWER OIL PRICES BY THE END OF THE YEAR AS THE OIL MARKET SHOULD BE BETTER SUPPLIED IN THE MONTHS AHEAD
SAYS IT RETAINS A MORE CONSTRUCTIVE PRICE OUTLOOK FOR MID-2026 AND 2H26
EXPECTS MODEST SUPPLY GROWTH IN NON-OPEC+ COUNTRIES AND DEMAND TO KEEP GROWING BY 2027
EXPECTS THAT MARKET FOCUS AT SOME POINT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO DECLINING SPARE CAPACITY IN THE OIL MARKET
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