US natural gas slips but heads for best week since late April

ReutersOct 3, 2025 2:54 PM

By Anushree Mukherjee and Pablo Sinha

Oct 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell on Friday, but were still on track for their best week since late April, supported by a report showing a smaller-than-expected storage build.

Front-month gas futures for November delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 3.8 cents, or 1.1%, to $3.40 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) as of 0929 a.m. ET.

However, the contract hit its highest level since July 18 in the previous session and was up 20% for the week.

"The weather has been hotter than normal and the lingering heat has caused the storage injections to be subpar given the record productions. We are expecting to see continued hotter temperatures for the next several weeks, which could possibly lead to relatively lower injections but could also extend the injection season for a couple of weeks," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Thursday said energy firms added 53 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas into storage during the week ended September 26. That was smaller than the 68 bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll.EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

"Even though yesterday's report storage report was lower than expected, we still have healthy storage levels, production's hanging in there and certainly we're heading into a lower demand period here in the next few weeks," said Kyle Cooper,energy market analyst at IAF Advisors.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states stood at 106.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in October, down from 107.4 bcfd in September and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would drop from 101.5 bcfd last week to 98.8 bcfd this week and be at 99.6 bcfd in the next week.

Goldman Sachs has kept its forecast for Henry Hub gas prices unchanged, with November–December delivery contracts seen at $4.00 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) and 2026 prices seen at $4.60 per mmBtu, the bank said in a note on Thursday.

Elsewhere, Shell-led SHEL.L LNG Canada has begun the process of starting up its second 6.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) liquefied natural gas processing unit known as Train 2 in Kitimat, British Columbia, a company spokesperson told Reuters on Thursday.

	Week ended October 3 forecast	Week ended Sep 26 Actual	Year ago Sep 26	Five-year average Sep 26
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+80 bcf	+53	+54	+85
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,641	3,561	3,540	3,390
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+7.4%	+5%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.40	3.46	2.57	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.12	10.05	12.89	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.02	11.04	13.35	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	56	64	65	80	95
U.S. GFS CDDs	71	76	68	57	44
U.S. GFS TDDs	127	140	133	137	139

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.2	107.2	107.6	101.4	98.1
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.0	7.1	7.5	N/A	7.4
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.3	114.4	115.1	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	2.0	2.4	2.4	N/A	2.2
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.9	6.9	6.8	N/A	6.1
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.6	16.1	16.1	12.1	11.3
U.S. Commercial	4.8	5.2	5.9	4.9	6.9
U.S. Residential	3.8	4.6	6.1	4.1	7.1
U.S. Power Plant	41.6	34.1	32.5	37.9	31.7
U.S. Industrial	22.1	22.1	22.3	21.9	22.4
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.1	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	79.8	73.3	74.2	76.3	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	105.3	98.8	99.6	N/A	95.9

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 % of Normal Actual	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	92	92	76	74	83
Jan-Jul	87	86	78	76	77
Oct-Sep	88	88	80	77	76

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Oct 3	Week ended Sep 26	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	7	11	10	11
Solar	7	6	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	45	42	41	38
Coal	17	18	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.32	3.24
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.54	1.55
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.69	3.76
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.53	1.60
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.97	2.98
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	1.73	3.05
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.20	3.23
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	-7.07	-1.97
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.47	0.34

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	33.40	35.38
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	55.00	44.25
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	39.45	43.43
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	20.13	23.88
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	14.5	21.38

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