FACTBOX-Macquarie cuts WTI crude forecast for 2025, 2026 on oversupply concerns, policy uncertainty

Sept 30 (Reuters) - Macquarie has lowered its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing a heavily oversupplied market and heightened uncertainty stemming from recent policy decisions under U.S. President Donald Trump's administration.

The bank in a note on Tuesday said it now expects WTI to average $64 per barrel in 2025, down $3 from its previous forecast, and $57 per barrel in 2026, also $3 lower.

U.S. President Donald Trump's latest round of tariffs, including 100% duties on imported branded drugs, 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks and 50% tariffs on kitchen cabinets, has heightened market uncertainty. There are concerns that these measures could dampen economic activity and slow down the manufacturing sector, a key driver of crude oil demand.

"Bearish supply surprises have continued in the third-quarter," Macquarie said in a note, adding that near-term market balances appear "even more bearish than what we had previously characterized as "cartoonishly" oversupplied."

At its meeting next Sunday, OPEC+ may speed up production increases in November from the 137,000 barrels per day hike it made for October, as its leader, Saudi Arabia, pushes to regain market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.

Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday as investors braced for a supply surplus due to potential OPEC+ plans and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region via Turkey. O/R

Macquarie believes a combination of lower prices, supply disruptions, OPEC policy shifts and time is needed to restore market balance.

indicates end-of-period forecast

# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision

For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters' latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL