US natgas extends losses on ample stockpiles, lower demand forecasts

ReutersSep 23, 2025 1:54 PM

By Anushree Mukherjee

Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures extended their decline to hit the lowest level in nearly a month on Tuesday as ample supplies of gas in storage and forecasts for less demand next week weighed on prices.

Front-month gas futures for October delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.7 cents, or 0.6%, at $2.79 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 09:02 a.m. EDT. The contract reached its lowest level since August 27 earlier in the session.

"The market is still reeling from last week's bigger than expected injection into inventories, which also sort of ruined the momentum," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for Price Futures Group.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration last week said energy firms injected 90 billion cubic feet of gas into storage during the week ended September 12. That was the biggest weekly increase since June.

That was bigger than the 80-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

Also weighing on prices, financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall from 103.5 bcfd this week to 101.2 bcfd next week.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 107.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in September, down from a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.

U.S. natural gas production is projected to reach record highs this winter, helping to meet both domestic consumption and rising liquefied natural gas export demand, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association’s 2025–2026 Winter Outlook.

"Beyond the near term, our outlook remains bullish to the current forward curve... We believe the fall bearishness is already priced in. With LNG gains, we should see not only a seasonal uplift to forwards, but our outlook is bullish to the most recent settlement," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants stood at 15.3 bcfd so far in September, compared with 15.8 bcfd in August. That compares with a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

On the storm front, hurricane Gabrielle has strengthened into a Category 4 storm, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. Additionally, there is a 50% chance of cyclone formation within the next 48 hours in the Central and Western Tropical Atlantic.

"We are seeing a very active Atlantic. And there's some big storms there, and you know it's probably not going to affect production that much," Flynn added.

	Week ended Sep 19 Forecast	Week ended Sep 12 Actual	Year ago Sep 19	Five-year average Sep 19
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+66	+90	+49	+76
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,499	3,433	3,486	3,305
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+5.9%	+6.3%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	2.80	2.92	2.41	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	10.36	10.33	11.75	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	11.27	-	13.41	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	19	22	16	50	64
U.S. GFS CDDs	108	111	96	79	64
U.S. GFS TDDs	127	133	112	129	128

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	107.4	107	107.3	101.0	97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	7.1	6.9	6.9	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	114.5	113.9	114.2	N/A	105.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.9	2.1	2.1	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	8.0	7.3	7.7	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	15.5	15.3	15.4	12.8	10.6
U.S. Commercial	4.8	4.8	4.9	4.8	5.0
U.S. Residential	4.1	3.8	4.0	4.0	3.9
U.S. Power Plant	37.2	40.7	37.7	40.2	37.0
U.S. Industrial	22.2	22.1	22.1	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.1	2.0	2.0	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	75.7	78.9	76.1	78.2	76.3
Total U.S. Demand	101.1	103.5	101.2	N/A	89.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	76	76	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Sep 26	Week ended Sep 19	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	8	11	10	11
Solar	7	7	5	4	3
Hydro	4	4	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	44	44	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.90	2.89
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	1.61	1.29
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	4.17	-
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	1.70	1.48
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.81	2.78
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.02	1.56
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.97	3.66
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	0.18	-
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	-	0.08

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	46.81	31.89
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	70.30	51.45
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	61.83	55.88
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	40.00	34.80
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	41.84	39.66

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Tradingkey