BREAKINGVIEWS-Gas makes Trump’s Russia oil threats ring hollow

By Yawen Chen

LONDON, Sept 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Donald Trump is once again picking fights with allies, as much as adversaries. The U.S. president wants the G7, NATO and the European Union to slap tariffs of up to 100% on all Chinese and Indian goods in retaliation for their purchases of Russian crude, promising Washington would match them. The plan sounds tough. In practice, it underlines Trump’s reluctance to bear costs himself – and a glaring blind spot on gas.

Europe is an unlikely recruit. China is the bloc’s second-largest trading partner, shipping 520 billion euros of goods of all types last year. Blunt tariffs would fuel inflation and invite harsh retaliation on supply-chain chokepoints like rare earths. India, meanwhile, is no softer target. Despite previous U.S. duties on its goods, New Delhi continues to import 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil every day with China picking up much of the surplus ones. That underlines how Trump has largely stuck with the system of his predecessor Joe Biden, which saw Russian oil subject to a price cap rather than an outright ban on sales.

An even more obvious sign that Trump has been pulling his punches is liquefied natural gas. Biden’s administration targeted Russia’s LNG sector, sanctioning Novatek’s NVTK.MM Arctic LNG 2 project and blacklisting tankers. That discouraged ports, buyers and financiers from expanding purchases. Yet in August, China received the first sanctioned cargo from Arctic LNG 2 at a strategically chosen port. More vessels are on the way. Trump, strikingly, has so far looked the other way, declining to sanction Chinese buyers or terminals.

That leaves a potentially large loophole. Analytics firm Kpler reckons Russian LNG shipments to Asia could grow by 10.9 million tonnes a year by 2026 – equal to around 14% of China’s imports in 2024. For Beijing, the flows help diversify away from Qatar and Australia. For Moscow's slowing economy, these revenues matter just as much as crude.

Obsessing about oil while tolerating LNG sanctions violations suggests Washington is unwilling to confront China directly. Brussels, meanwhile, was due on Friday to unveil the latest in a long line of Russia-connected sanctions that has seen it focus on tankers on the LNG front. While these may be tougher, there are limits to what the bloc could do: it remains Russian LNG's top buyer, and if China buys less Qatari and Australian gas then more will find its way to Europe, at lower prices. That's handy for European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, given elevated domestic energy prices and the EU plans to end purchases of Russian oil and gas by the start of 2028.

By insisting Europeans move first, Trump can blame allies for weakness while avoiding escalation himself. For Putin, the bigger message is clear: U.S. threats may sound tough, but without consistency or follow-through they ring hollow.

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CONTEXT NEWS

The European Union is planning to present member states with its latest package of proposed sanctions on Russia as early as September 19, following a phone call between Ursula von der Leyen and U.S. President Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on September 18 citing people familiar with the matter.

The European Commission will propose speeding up the phase-out of Russian fossil imports, President Ursula von der Leyen said on September 16 after a call with Trump. Politico reported on September 19 that Brussels was expected to beef up measures targeting third countries that continue to trade with Moscow, including Chinese and Indian interests. But European officials are very unlikely to impose crippling tariffs on India or China, the Reuters report said.

The Commission had been expected to present a 19th package of sanctions to envoys of the 27 EU member states on September 17 that diplomats said was likely to include Russian banks, Moscow's sanctions-evading "shadow fleet" and listings to stop circumvention in third countries.

President Donald Trump said on September 13 that the U.S. is prepared to impose fresh energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO nations cease purchasing Russian oil and implement similar measures.

Trump said NATO, acting as a bloc, should impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on Chinese imports, a move he argued would weaken Beijing’s economic grip on Moscow.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on September 15 the Trump administration would not impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods to halt China's purchases of Russian oil unless European countries hit China and India with steep duties of their own.