Brazil's Conab forecasts 3.6% increase in soybean production for 2025/2026

By Isabel Teles and Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Brazilian farmers are expected to increase the country's soybean output in the new season, producing nearly 178 million metric tons, Brazilian crop agency said on Thursday.

In its first detailed forecast for the cycle now beginning, the agency also said an expected reduction in U.S. soy exports gives Brazil, already the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, the opportunity to increase its share of the global trade.

Conab sees Brazil's soybean crop rising by 3.6%, to a record 177.67 million metric tons in 2026, from 171.47 million tons previously.

Exports may reach about 112 million tons in the new season, up from around 106 million tons in the season finishing presently. Brazil sells most of its soy output to China.

"The tariff dispute between the U.S. and China, in particular, tends to trigger adjustments in international demand, which could reconfigure the dynamics of trade flows and generate new opportunities and challenges for exporting countries," Conab said.

Conab also predicted a 3.7% increase in the soybean planted area, to 49.08 million hectares (121.279 million acres), "in spite of international geopolitical uncertainties and climate risks increasing market volatility, putting pressure on production costs, and affecting crop predictability."

Brazil's total grain crop, comprised mainly of soy and corn, is forecast to reach 353.76 million tons, up from 350.21 million tons in the 2024/25 season.

Corn exports are forecast to rise to 46.5 million tons from 40 million tons, according to Conab.