Oil prices to drop sharply in months ahead as OPEC+ raises output, US EIA says

NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Global oil prices are set to drop significantly in the months ahead as rising OPEC+ production will lead to large oil inventory builds, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report on Tuesday.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, is expected to fall to an average of $59 per barrel in the fourth-quarter of 2025, from an average of $68 a barrel in August, the EIA said in the report, which was finalized before the OPEC+ group's weekend decision to further raise output in October.

Oil inventories will rise at an average of about 2.1 million barrels per day through the second-half of 2025 and remain elevated through next year, the EIA said.

For the full-year, Brent crude prices are expected to average $67.80 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures are expected to average around $64.16 a barrel, the EIA said.

Global crude oil and liquid fuels output is expected to average 105.5 million barrels a day this year, the EIA said, up 100,000 bpd from its prior forecast. Consumption is likely to average 103.8 million bpd this year, also up by 100,000 bpd over prior forecasts, the EIA said.

U.S. crude oil output is now expected to average a record 13.44 million bpd this year, the EIA said, up from the prior forecast of 13.41 million bpd. U.S. oil output averaged 13.24 million bpd last year.

Gasoline consumption in the U.S. will increase next year to average 8.93 million bpd due to a combination of lower fuel prices and revisions to official data that raised the number of people of working-age in the country, the EIA said.

Gasoline consumption this year is expected to decline nearly 1% from last year to average 8.90 million bpd, the EIA said.