Canada wheat, barley production down, canola and oats up, StatsCan survey finds

By Ed White

WINNIPEG, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Canada's crops showed an extreme range of conditions in late July, Statistics Canada reported on Thursday, but total production is close to trade expectations.

That range, plus much rainfall in August, make the projected production numbers, based on late July data, less reliable than in many years, analysts said.

"It was so variable this year," said analyst Lawrence Klusa of Seges Markets after the report was issued. "It's going to be very difficult to judge how those late rains helped the crop."

The model-based assessment projects a canola crop of 19.9 million metric tons, an all-wheat crop of 35.6 million tons, a spring wheat crop of 25.6 million tons, and a durum crop of 6.1 million tons.

Wheat production in Canada is projected to fall 1.1% in 2025 compared to 2024, while canola production was up by 3.6%, according to Statistics Canada, based in part on satellite and agroclimatic data.

Oat production in Canada grew 1.0% in 2025 from 2024, and barley production was down 1.9%. Durum output, the wheat used to make pasta, was pegged at 6.1 million tonnes.

The ICE canola futures market sold off after the report was released, with traders believing the true size of the crop could be a million tons larger due to the good August weather, and they expect to see Statistics Canada revise the total upward.

"No one construed the report as being friendly," said trader Tony Tryhuk of RBC Dominion Securities.

"People who got moisture in late-seeded crops have really, really benefited."

StatsCan said crop conditions on the Prairies in late July were variable, with some areas receiving lower-than-average precipitation and prolonged high temperatures.

The agency said prairie conditions ranged from much lower than normal to much higher than normal at the end of July.

Farmers and analysts said August had near-ideal pod-filling conditions for canola, with cool temperatures and frequent showers in large areas of the region.

However, a significant area suffered from extreme dryness, high heat in the spring and early summer, and had lost much yield potential.

Other areas of Canada faced above-average crop conditions. Rainfall was below average in much of Ontario, while it was above-normal in Quebec.

Production estimates for Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta are calculated using model-based yields. Estimates for Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia are all carried forward from the July estimates of principal field crop production.