Silver Price Forecast: Bulls defend $38.00 as triangle support holds, momentum remains fragile

• Silver trims intraday losses as buyers defend support near the $38.00 handle.
• XAG/USD retests the upper boundary of the broken symmetrical triangle and edges higher, keeping short-term hopes of a bullish continuation alive.
• Momentum signals remain mixed, with the RSI recovering slightly, but the MACD still indicates a weakening bias below the signal line.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades slightly lower on Wednesday, having trimmed earlier losses after finding support near the $38.00 handle. The metal came under pressure earlier in the session as a stronger US Dollar (USD) capped upside momentum. The decline came despite political turbulence in Washington, with US President Donald Trump’s push to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Lisa Cook, stirring fresh concerns over central bank independence.

At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading near $38.50, having trimmed some of its intraday losses after bouncing from a low of $38.08. The renewed demand for the Greenback and firmer US Treasury yields are weighing on precious metals. However, the downside in Silver remains cushioned amid lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s independence and growing expectations for a rate cut, following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tilt at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

From a technical perspective, Silver is back under pressure after failing to extend its breakout above the symmetrical triangle formation seen on the 4-hour chart. The pullback has dragged XAG/USD back toward the triangle’s upper boundary, now acting as a key support zone alongside the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located near $38.13. A decisive break below this confluence support would likely invalidate the recent bullish breakout and shift short-term momentum back in favor of the bears.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the neutral 50 mark, suggesting a lack of clear directional strength.. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing waning bullish momentum. The MACD line (blue) has crossed below the signal line (orange), indicating a bearish crossover, while the histogram has turned negative.

Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at $38.63, marked by the 21-period EMA, followed by $39.06 — Friday’s high. A sustained break above this zone is needed to revive bullish momentum and expose the next upside target at the multi-year peak of $39.53. On the flip side, critical support is located at the $38.13-$38.00 zone, which combines the 100-period SMA with the upper boundary of the former triangle. A clean break below this area would signal a failed breakout and open the door for a deeper pullback toward the $37.50 pivot, with $37.00 remaining the next key downside level if selling pressure accelerates.