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CBOT corn tumbles to contract lows as USDA projects record harvest

ReutersAug 12, 2025 6:45 PM

- Chicago Board of Trade corn futures dove to contract lows on Tuesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its U.S. harvest outlook by more than expected, ballooning its stocks outlook for the new-crop season to a seven-year high.

  • In a monthly report, the USDA projected corn yields will average 188.8 bushels per acre, up from its previous forecast for 181 bpa. USDA said farmers will harvest 16.742 billion bushels of the grain, up from its previous estimate for 15.705 billion bushels.

  • Both forecasts topped analysts' expectations for yields at 184.4 bpa and production at 15.99 billion bushels.

  • The USDA also raised its estimate for springtime corn plantings to 97.3 million acres from its July estimate of 95.2 million.

  • The USDA tightened its U.S. old-crop corn ending stocks outlook to 1.305 billion bushels from 1.340 billion a month ago after raising its corn exports outlook by 70 million bushels. Its new-crop ending stocks forecast of 2.117 billion bushels was the largest since the 2018/19 season, USDA data showed.

  • In a daily export sales announcement on Tuesday, the USDA reported private sales of 315,488 metric tons of U.S. corn to Mexico, most of it for shipment in the 2025/26 season.

  • CBOT December corn futures CZ25 hit a contract low of $3.92 a bushel and ended 13-1/4 cents lower at $3.94-1/2 per bushel.

  • All contracts from September 2025 CU25 through September 2026 CU26 posted new lifetime lows.

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