METALS-Copper rises on upbeat Chinese trade data

By Polina Devitt

LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Copper prices rose on Thursday after July trade data in top metals consumer China beat forecasts, with cautious optimism over a potential U.S.-China trade deal offering further support.

Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange added 0.1% to $9,686.50 a metric ton by 1620 GMT.

"China's strong exports data has provided positive sentiment for the industrial metals," said BNP Paribas analyst David Wilson.

China's exports rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, beating a forecast 5.4% increase in a Reuters poll. Imports grew 4.1%, defying expectations of a 1% fall.

Its copper imports rose 3.4% from a month earlier while copper concentrate imports climbed 9% as the smelting sector continued to snap up tight concentrate supplies in a record-breaking production run.

The past week's 1.4% fall in LME copper, prompted by a slump in Comex copper futures HGc2 after Washington excluded copper metal from its import tariffs on some copper products, also provided impetus for the growth.

The U.S. has accumulated huge amounts of the metal in anticipation of these tariffs. For copper to start moving out of U.S. stocks HG-STX-COMEX, the premium on Comex futures over the LME benchmark would need to swing to a discount, BNP Paribas analyst Wilson said.

The French bank expects LME copper to retreat to $8,800 by the end of the third quarter owing to a surplus in the global market. The refined copper market was in a 272,000 tons surplus in the first five months of 2025.

The broader markets remain focused on whether Beijing and Washington will reach a durable trade agreement before an August 12 tariff deadline.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he could announce further tariffs on China, similar to the additional 25% duty imposed on imports of Indian goods over its Russian oil purchases.

Among other LME metals, aluminium CMAL3 fell 0.2% to $2,602.50 a ton, zinc CMZN3 gained 0.9% to $2,811.50, lead CMPB3 rose 0.5% to $2,003 and tin CMSN3 firmed by 1.3% to $33,780 while nickel CMNI3 slid 0.1% to $15,120.

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