US natgas prices climb 3% on lower daily output, hot weather

ReutersAug 5, 2025 7:11 PM

Daily output drops to three-week low, impacting supply
LNG export feedgas increases after plant outages end
Gas stockpiles 7% above normal, expected to grow further

By Scott DiSavino

Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% on Tuesday, lifted by a drop in daily output, rising gas flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants and forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather to last through late August.

The heat means homes and businesses will likely keep their air conditioners cranked up until the end of the month, forcing power generators to burn more gas than usual for this time of year. More than 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. comes from gas-fired power plants.

Front-month gas futures for September delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 7.8 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $3.01 per million British thermal units. On Monday, the contract closed at its lowest price since April 25.

That increase pushed the contract out of technically oversold territory.

Despite a hotter-than-usual summer, record output has allowed energy firms to put more gas into storage than usual in recent months. Analysts said gas stockpiles were currently around 7% above normal for this time of year and would likely keep growing in coming weeks. EIA/GASNGAS/POLL

In the Atlantic Ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said there were two disturbances that could turn into tropical cyclones over the next week - one with a 40% chance of forming off the coasts of North and South Carolina and Georgia, and one with a 50% chance of forming in the North Central Atlantic.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states rose to 108.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in August, up from a monthly record high of 107.9 bcfd in July.

But on a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-week low of 106.0 bcfd on Tuesday, down about 3.7 bcfd since hitting a daily record high of 109.7 bcfd on July 28. Preliminary data, however, is often revised later in the day.

LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 105.1 bcfd this week to 110.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants rose to 15.9 bcfd so far in August, up from 15.5 bcfd in July but remained shy of the monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

That increase in LNG export feedgas came after Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd export plant in Texas exited last week's outages and as Venture Global LNG's VG.N 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines plant in Louisiana pulled in a record 3.2 bcfd of feedgas on Sunday.

	Week ended Aug 1 Forecast	Week ended Jul 25 Actual	Year ago Aug 1	Five-year average Aug 1
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+25	+48	+21	+29
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	3,148	3,123	3,267	2,957
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.5%	+6.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.00	2.93	2.09	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	11.51	11.60	12.40	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	12.01	12.00	13.31	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	2	2	5	3	4
U.S. GFS CDDs	238	233	218	201	191
U.S. GFS TDDs	240	235	223	204	195

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	108.4	108.2	108.2	102.5	97.9
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	7.8	8.1	N/A	7.5
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1
Total U.S. Supply	116.3	115.9	116.3	N/A	105.5

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.9	2.6	2.6	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	6.9	7.0	7.0	N/A	6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas	14.7	15.5	15.6	12.9	10.2
U.S. Commercial	4.4	4.4	4.4	4.5	4.6
U.S. Residential	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.7	3.4
U.S. Power Plant	51.3	42.2	47.4	49.7	44.4
U.S. Industrial	22.1	22.2	22.2	21.8	21.9
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.4	5.3	5.3	5.3	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.4	2.1	2.3	2.1	3.1
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	89.3	80.0	85.3	87.2	82.8
Total U.S. Demand	112.8	105.1	110.5	N/A	95.3

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	77	77	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	78	78	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	80	80	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Aug 8	Week ended Aug 1	2024	2023	2022
Wind	8	7	11	10	11
Solar	8	7	5	4	3
Hydro	5	5	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	42	45	42	41	38
Coal	17	19	16	17	21
Nuclear	19	16	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	2.89	3.00
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.57	2.22
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.14	3.15
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	2.25	2.08
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	2.67	2.63
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	2.76	2.41
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	3.34	3.09
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	1.10	0.50
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	0.42	0.49

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	57.63	59.93
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	45.71	46.37
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	37.33	34.98
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	50.61	44.30
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	35.29	28.96

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