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GRAINS-Wheat rises after Russia trims its harvest estimate

ReutersJul 23, 2025 1:47 AM

- Chicago wheat futures rose on Wednesday, extending gains from the previous session, after top exporter Russia trimmed its harvest and export forecasts but ample global supply limited gains.

Soybean futures climbed following a decline in the U.S. crop ratings and hopes that trade deals may boost demand for U.S. exports.

Corn rose slightly, clawing back some of Tuesday's losses but weighed down by forecasts for crop-friendly rain in U.S. grain belts and plentiful supply.

FUNDAMENTALS

* The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Wv1 was up 0.2% at $5.50-3/4 a bushel at 0131 GMT. Prices rose 1.3% and reached their highest level in a week and a half on Tuesday but are still not far from May's five-year low of $5.06-1/4.

* CBOT soybeans Sv1 were up 0.5% at $10.31 a bushel and corn Cv1 rose 0.3% to $4.19-1/4 a bushel.

* Russia's agriculture minister said the country would produce 88-90 million metric tons of wheat this year, versus the previous forecast of 90 million tons, and export 43-44 million tons in the 2025/26 season, down from the previous estimate of 45 million tons.

* Russian consultants Sovecon and IKAR say Russia will harvest around 84 million tons this year.

* Whichever forecast proves correct, production above 80 million tons is large by historical standards and the new crop is beginning to reach the market.

* Meanwhile, the U.S. winter wheat crop was 73% harvested by Sunday, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), France's soft wheat crop is expected to bounce back from last year's low levels, and India's wheat inventories rose to a four-year high.

* Traders are hopeful that U.S. President Donald Trump will drum up some purchases of U.S. farm goods in trade negotiations.

* Trump announced a deal with Japan on Wednesday that he said would increase market access for some agricultural products, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S. and Chinese officials will meet in Stockholm next week.

MARKETS NEWS

* Japanese shares led an Asian share market rally on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Japan and fuelled hopes of more to come, offsetting mixed U.S. earnings that highlighted the drags from higher tariffs. MKTS/GLOB

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