TSR reduces pre-season forecast for 2025 Atlantic hurricane activity

By Mia MacGregor

July 8 - (The Insurer) - London-based Tropical Storm Risk has slightly reduced its pre-season forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2025, predicting a season close to the 1991-2020 climate norm.

The TSR July 2025 forecast predicts an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 126, compared to the 30-year climate norm of 122, with expectations of three intense hurricanes, seven hurricanes and 15 tropical storms.

For the U.S., TSR forecast an ACE index of 3.0, with two hurricanes and four tropical storms expected.

The likelihood of these forecasts reaching the upper tercile for ACE index is 30% for the North Atlantic and 35% for the U.S.

Factors influencing this forecast include expectations for tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea waters to be near or above normal by August-September 2025. Additionally, surface pressure and precipitation anomalies across much of the basin are projected to be neutral or unfavorable for tropical cyclone activity.

Despite the current prediction, TSR acknowledged uncertainty at this stage and noted potential suppressing signals that could affect the season's intensity. The forecast has been adjusted downwards since May due to these factors.

The next TSR forecast update for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be released on Tuesday, August 5, 2025.

TSR initially predicted above-average activity for the 2025 season with 16 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater intensity.