TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may test support at $9.79 in third quarter
SINGAPORE, June 26 (Reuters) - CBOT soybeans Sc1 may test support at $9.79 per bushel in the third quarter, a break below which may open the way towards the $8.92-1/2 to $9.46 range.
The uptrend from $9.36-1/4 has been developing within a rising channel, which defines a band of the price fluctuation. The trend may have adopted a double-zigzag mode.
Seven small waves make up this pattern. The second wave b could be unfolding towards $9.79. This wave is expected to be followed by an upward wave c, which would travel toward $10.82-1/4, to conclude the whole bounce.
However, the pattern may turn out to be a bearish flag, which will only be composed of five small waves, and the drop towards $9.79 will be classified as a resumption of the downtrend from $16.16-1/2.
A break below $9.79 would confirm this scenario. A wide bearish target range of $8.06-1/4 to $8.92-1/2 will be considered.
A break above $10.82-1/4 could lead to a gain into $11.72-1/4 to $12.15-1/2 range. Signals on the monthly chart present a much broader perspective.
Following its stabilisation around strong support of $9.44, the contract has been climbing toward the resistance at $11.07-1/4.
A falling channel suggests a similar target. The downtrend from $17.99 consists of five waves. The current wave (d) could travel to $11.07-1/4, followed by a downward wave (e).
That means the upside will be rather limited. But even such a limitation won't restrict the market to break $11.07-1/4 and climb further because the wave (d) might be the same degree as the preceding wave (b).
* Charts are unavailable in email received through "Alert". To view charts, key in the news code of TECH/C.
** Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. The views expressed are his own.
No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult his or her own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses. **
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If you have a query or comment on this story, send an email to wang.tao@thomsonreuters.com.
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