US natgas heads for best week in more than a month on hot weather forecasts

ReutersJun 20, 2025 7:00 PM

Natgas prices up about 7.9% for the week
Israel struck dozens of military targets overnight
Freeport LNG seeks 40-month extension for Train 4 completion

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday but headed for its best week in more than a month, steered by forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

Gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 3.6%, to settle at $3.85 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after hitting its highest level since April earlier in the session at $4.148. Prices were up about 7.9% for the week.

"It’s hot hot hot. Not only are temperatures heating up in the United States with a major heat wave, the tensions between Israel and Iran are still hot," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

"With temperatures expected to reach triple digits in major cities from Chicago to the East Coast could lead to a record-breaking demand for natural gas as air conditioners will be humming."

On the geopolitical front, a week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets overnight, including missile production sites, a research body involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran.

The Iran-Israel conflict has intensified supply concerns in the global gas market, fueled by fears over the secure passage of LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically significant chokepoints in the global energy supply chain.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states stood at 105.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, which remains below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance earlier in the month.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended June 13. That was a little smaller than the 98-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average of 72 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS

"How long the price increase will continue depends on the realization of the heat and how long the heat will continue and how it will take a toll on the storage," said Zhen Zhu, managing consultant at C.H. Guernsey and Company in Oklahoma City.

"If the summer weather turns out to be normal, we may end up with a record storage level at the end of the injection season, which will put a cap on prices," he added.

Meanwhile, Freeport LNG has requested a 40-month extension from federal regulators to complete the long-delayed Train 4 expansion at its Texas export facility, aiming to bring the project online by December 1, 2031, according to a filing.

	Week ended Jun 13 Forecast	Week ended Jun 6 Actual	Year ago Jun 13	Five-year average Jun 13
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):	+98	+109	+72	+72
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):	2,805	2,707	3,035	2,640
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average	+6.3%	+5.4%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)	Current Day	Prior Day	This Month Last Year	Prior Year Average 2024	Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1	3.97	3.85	2.81	2.41	3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1	13.21	13.43	10.87	10.95	15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1	13.88	14.01	12.30	11.89	15.23


LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast	Current Day	Prior Day	Prior Year	10-Year Norm	30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs	7	7	8	8	9
U.S. GFS CDDs	215	214	216	177	167
U.S. GFS TDDs	222	221	224	185	176

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
	Prior Week	Current Week	Next Week	This Week Last Year	Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production	105.4	105.4	105.3	102.2	96.8
U.S. Imports from Canada	8.0	7.7	7.6	N/A	7.3
U.S. LNG Imports	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total U.S. Supply	113.3	113.1	112.8	N/A	104.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada	1.6	1.8	1.8	N/A	2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico	7.5	7.4	7.5	N/A	6.3
U.S. LNG Exports	13.7	14.1	14.6	12.6	9.1
U.S. Commercial	4.5	4.4	4.3	4.5	4.8
U.S. Residential	3.8	3.8	3.5	3.8	4.3
U.S. Power Plant	38.2	41.5	41.8	40.5	38.0
U.S. Industrial	22.1	22.2	22.1	21.6	21.5
U.S. Plant Fuel	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2	5.2
U.S. Pipe Distribution	2.0	2.1	2.1	1.9	2.8
U.S. Vehicle Fuel	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2
Total U.S. Consumption	76.0	79.4	79.1	75.3	76.8
Total U.S. Demand	98.8	102.8	102.9	N/A	88.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)	2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast	2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast	2024 % of Normal Actual	2023 % of Normal Actual	2022 % of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep	79	79	74	83	107
Jan-Jul	79	79	76	77	102
Oct-Sep	81	81	77	76	103


U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
	Week ended Jun 20	Week ended Jun 13	2024	2023	2022
Wind	9	9	11	10	11
Solar	8	8	5	4	3
Hydro	6	6	6	6	6
Other	1	1	1	2	2
Petroleum	0	0	0	0	0
Natural Gas	41	41	42	41	38
Coal	18	17	16	17	21
Nuclear	17	18	19	19	19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL	3.43	2.89
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL	2.97	2.61
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL	3.09	2.58
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL	3.13	2.40
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL	3.33	2.73
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL	3.40	2.75
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL	4.05	3.64
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL	2.24	2.20
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL	1.25	1.01

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub	Current Day	Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX	56.84	43.15
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX	39.61	54.01
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX	37.21	37.23
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX	39.25	47.34
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX	20.13	30.34

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