Goldman estimates geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel for Brent after prices rise

June 18 (Reuters) - Following the rise in Brent prices to $76-77 per barrel, Goldman Sachs estimates a geopolitical risk premium of around $10 per barrel, the bank said in a note on Wednesday.

It added that while its base case is that Brent declines to around $60/bbl in Q4 assuming no supply disruptions, the $10/bbl premium appears justified in light of its lower Iran supply scenario where Brent spikes just above $90, and tail scenarios where broad regional oil production or shipping is negatively affected.