Gold price (XAU/USD) continues scaling higher for the third consecutive day on Friday, rising to the $3,444 area, or its highest level since April 22 during the Asian session amid the global flight to safety. The global risk sentiment takes a turn for the worse in reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Furthermore, persistent trade-related uncertainties weigh on investors' sentiment, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion.
Meanwhile, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) released on Thursday pointed to further signs of cooling inflation and reaffirmed bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would lower borrowing costs further in 2025. This drives additional flows towards the non-yielding Gold price and contributes to the positive momentum. Bulls seem unaffected by a modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from its lowest level since March 2022, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair remains to the upside.
From a technical perspective, the recent move higher witnessed over the past month or so has been along an upward-sloping channel. This points to a well-established short-term uptrend, which, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in bullish territory, validates the near-term positive outlook for the Gold price. Hence, a subsequent move towards challenging the all-time peak, around the $3,500 psychological mark touched in April, looks like a distinct possibility. The said handle coincides with the top boundary of the ascending channel, which if cleared decisively will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders.
On the flip side, any corrective pullback might now be seen as a buying opportunity and find decent support near the $3,400 mark. Some follow-through selling below the $3,385 region, however, should pave the way for additional losses towards the $3,355 intermediate support en route to the $3,330-3,329 region, representing the lower end of the ascending channel. A convincing break below the latter would negate the constructive setup and shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders.
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.