US CPC sees 82% chance of ENSO neutral conditions through June-August
June 12 (Reuters) - El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are likely in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2025, with a 82% chance in June-August, the United States' Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
ENSO neutral conditions may continue into winter 2025-26, though confidence is lower, with a 48% chance of neutral and 41% chance of La Niña in November-January it added.
WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle, which affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
CONTEXT
Japan's weather bureau said on Tuesday there is a 60% chance that normal weather conditions will continue towards autumn.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service has predicted above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin for the 2025 season.
KEY QUOTES
"While there will be some benefits to having a ENSO-neutral summer (north)/winter (south), the crops production will not be as high as they could be under a La Nina set up," said Tyler Roys, Senior Meteorologist, Lead European Forecaster at AccuWeather.
"While it has been generally decent with precipitation across the spring crop lands in the United States, if any dry periods do come about along with heat for a period of time in July into August, that would stunt what could be a really good crop year."
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