Brazil crop agency ups 2024/25 soy supply, export forecast

By Ana Mano

SAO PAULO, June 12 (Reuters) - Brazil's soybean production forecast for the 2024/25 season, which is almost over nationwide, has been raised to 169.60 million metric tons from 168.34 million tons, national crop agency Conab said in a report on Thursday.

The country's soybean production is expected to rise some 15% from the previous season, reflecting good weather and excellent yields in key producing regions like Mato Grosso state, where supplies will hit a record of 50.58 million tons this season.

The agency also noted that Brazil, the world's top soybean supplier and exporter, will sell 106.24 million tons of soybeans to trade partners like China this season, more than the 105.96 million tons forecast in its May report, thanks to abundant supplies.

Regarding internal soy demand, the agency said an increase in the percentage of biodiesel mixed with diesel, from 14% to 15%, is not expected to happen. This means the soybean volumes destined for domestic crushing are likely to fall 903,000 tons, going to 56.15 million tons from 57.03 million tons.

Conab also increased Brazil's total corn production forecast, projecting it will now surpass last season's output by 11%, according to the report.

Brazil plants three corn crops annually.

The harvest of Brazil's second corn, which represents about two-thirds of national production in a given year, has begun in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana, Conab said referring to the crop that is mainly exported by Brazilian traders in the second half of the year.

Second corn production will rise by some 12% from last season, Conab said, to 101 million tons, given good weather conditions throughout the cycle in most producing regions.

Conab said a reduction in rainfall in May favored the maturation of second corn fields.

However, a fall in rainfall could compromise yields in areas sown late, especially in Minas Gerais and parts of Sao Paulo and Goias states, especially if there is no new rainfall, according to Conab.