TECHNICALS-CBOT soybeans may fall to $10.51-1/4

SINGAPORE, June 11 (Reuters) - The CBOT soybean July contract SN25 may fall to $10.51-1/4 per bushel, as it repeatedly failed to break resistance at $10.63.

Identified as the 61.8% retracement of the downtrend from $10.82, the resistance serves as a pivotal point in the development of the uptrend from $10.32-1/2.

A break above the resistance would confirm an extension of the uptrend toward $10.82. However, the bearish divergence on the hourly RSI suggests an exhaustion of the rally. A top could be forming.

The contract is likely to retrace to $10.51-1/4 than to break $10.63 and rise to $10.70-1/4. On the daily chart, the contract has broken resistance at $10.54-3/4.

The market is supposed to climb toward $10.71-1/4. However, the small spinning top on June 9 and the doji on June 10 clearly symbolize the dissipation of the bullish momentum. The break may turn out to be false. At least the market may consolidate around $10.54-3/4 for one or two days.

* Wang Tao is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals. Views expressed are his own.

** No information in this analysis should be considered as being business, financial or legal advice. Each reader should consult their own professional or other advisers for business, financial or legal advice regarding the products mentioned in the analyses.​