RPT-COLUMN-Crop Watch: Corn improves but soy health is lacking -Braun

By Karen Braun

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 2 (Reuters) - Although not all fields have emerged, U.S. Crop Watch soybean conditions are starting out on their worst note in at least five years, similar to the corn ratings a week ago.

Only eight of the 11 Crop Watch soybean fields are available for rating this week, and the unweighted average condition score comes in at 3.56. That compares with a range of 3.75 to 3.91 for the same eight fields at this point in the past three seasons, and a 4.34 in 2021.

The Crop Watch producers each week assign condition scores to their corn and soybean fields using a scale of 1 to 5. The ratings are similar to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s system where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.

However, the Crop Watch condition scores are mostly visual in nature and do not incorporate yield assumptions.

No bean scores are available this week in Kansas and North Dakota given the very recent planting dates. The Ohio beans are expected to be sown this week, and the producer has no concerns over this later timing.

Crop Watch conditions are in the 2-range for soy fields in southeastern Illinois and South Dakota, the latter of which was replanted on Sunday. Although the eastern Iowa beans currently score a 4, the producer notes a lot of replanting in the area with very thin plants.

CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT?

USDA on Monday afternoon will issue its first U.S. soybean conditions of the season, and the Crop Watch results could suggest that upside is limited. This happened last week with USDA’s corn ratings, which were the lowest initial conditions since 2019.

This week, the 11-field, average Crop Watch corn condition score rose to 3.68 from 3.57 last week, which had been the lowest start for Crop Watch corn ratings in at least five years.

Corn health improved notably in South Dakota and slightly in both Nebraska and western Iowa. Corn in all three locations had been battered by wind, hail, frost, rains and heat in the latter part of May.

The past week started unseasonably cool for most of the Corn Belt except for North Dakota. Nebraska, Kansas and Ohio were the only locations that had notable rainfall last week out of the 11 Crop Watch areas.

Warmth arrived for some of the fields over the weekend, though the Crop Watch producers were mixed when asked if last week’s weather helped the crops or held them back.

Most producers still want some heat for both corn and beans, but the week ahead will mostly feature milder temperatures. This could still allow for some improvement in crop conditions if the accompanying rainfall is not excessive, though the forecast suggests larger totals are possible in the central Corn Belt.

U.S. spring wheat conditions came in shockingly low last week, though the North Dakota producer says that wheat in his east-central location improved over the last week with the dryness and warmth.

Analysts expect U.S. spring wheat conditions on Monday afternoon to rise to 47% good-to-excellent (GE) from 45% last week. Corn is seen improving to 69% GE from 68% last week.

U.S. soybean conditions are predicted to come in at 68% GE, equivalent to the five-year average for initial bean ratings. Those initial scores ranged from 62% to 72%, leaving some leeway for this year’s number.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.