Goldman Sachs lifts second-half 2025 aluminium forecast to $2,280/t

June 2 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminium price forecast for the second half of 2025 by $140 to $2,280 per metric ton, citing a smaller than expected market surplus, but expects prices to decline in early 2026.

The bank said the impact of the trade war on global activity had been less severe than expected, prompting it to raise its 2025 global aluminium demand growth forecast from 1.1% year-on-year to 1.8%.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he planned to increase tariffs on imported aluminium to 50% from 25%. About half of all aluminium used in the country for transport, packaging and construction is delivered from elsewhere.

Benchmark three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange CMAL3 was up 0.8% at $2,463 a ton as of 1421 GMT.

Goldman Sachs expects aluminium prices to decline to a low of $2,100 per ton in early 2026. It expects prices to average $2,230 in 2026 and $2,500 in 2027, down from its previous forecasts of $2,540 and $2,800 respectively.

Goldman Sachs said that three 0.5 million tons per annum (MTPA) smelters in Indonesia were now expected to be operational by mid-2026, earlier than previously anticipated.

It expects stronger production to result in a 1 million ton surplus in 2026, the largest since 2020.

"Cost deflation will also add downward pressure to the aluminium price through 2026, as alumina and energy prices remain weak, and cap sustained upside to aluminium prices," the bank said.

The bank maintained its 2026 demand outlook but lowered its 2027 forecast to reflect slower growth in China’s solar installations following recent policy changes.